Betting Stuff: Way-too-early odds, picks to win conference championships in 2025

The 2024 college football season ended largely the way most expected it to. Ohio State, a favorite in the preseason, won the national championship. Georgia won the SEC. Oregon won the Big Ten. Clemson won the ACC. We had a season filled with surprises, upsets, and parity but at the end of the day, the most reliable teams lifted trophies.

So, as we turn our attention to 2025, which teams will win major conference titles in the new year? Below, you’ll find current odds (via FanDuel) and entirely too early picks to win conference championships in the SEC, the Big Ten, and the ACC.

SEC Championship odds

odds via FanDuel

Georgia won the 2024 SEC Championship Game by outlasting Texas in overtime without its starting quarterback. Even in a down year for the Bulldogs, Kirby Smart still managed to not only make the conference title game but win it. Georgia was deeply flawed this past season, with pass-catchers who couldn’t consistently catch passes, pass rushers who couldn’t consistently rush the passer, and a run defense that was surprisingly average.

Smart identified and acquired a few key pieces in the transfer portal to fill holes. Georgia once again signed an elite high school recruiting class. There’s no questioning the talent in Athens. And Smart has earned the benefit of the doubt as a coach capable of getting his group to rise to the moment; Georgia won a road game at Texas in the regular season despite 3 interceptions and it won a conference title with a mid-game quarterback change. Georgia will obviously carry value as a team to back in the preseason if it isn’t the outright favorite. The question with the Dawgs is whether they can navigate the schedule in front of them. Georgia faces Tennessee on the road as well as Alabama, Ole Miss, and Texas at home. The Dawgs also have a potentially tricky game against Auburn in Jordan-Hare the week before hosting Ole Miss.

If we consider FanDuel’s odds as representative of the best teams in the conference next year, take the top 6 and look at the schedules. Georgia faces 4 of the other 5 teams. Alabama plays 3 of the other 5 teams. Ole Miss, Tennessee, and LSU play 2 apiece.

And then there’s Texas, which will face only 1. While Texas does introduce a new quarterback into the equation, and it does open the season in Columbus against the reigning national champs, the Longhorns once again have an extremely favorable league schedule. They get Florida early in the year. Then they face Oklahoma, Kentucky, Mississippi State, and Vanderbilt. They have a bye week before traveling to Georgia and will have a rest advantage. Then they close the season with back-to-back home games against Arkansas and Texas A&M.

The Longhorns don’t play a single home game in the month of October, but 2 of the road games are against Kentucky and Mississippi State and a third is the annual Cotton Bowl battle with Oklahoma. Texas is the favorite because Texas has the easiest path to the title game — by a pretty significant degree. The Longhorns could lose to Georgia again and it wouldn’t matter. Again.

I wasn’t a big believer in Texas over the back half of the 2024 season. That first Georgia loss was eye-opening. With the quarterback switch, Texas might be better there. But I think that’ll be balanced out by some steps back elsewhere. A backfield with Arch Manning, Quintrevion Wisner, and CJ Baxter has a ton of dynamic ability. Texas has to replace 4 starters on the offense line, though, as well as 3 outstanding defensive backs.

Texas is perfectly capable of getting to the game. I’m less certain Texas can win the game, especially if Smart is on the other sideline.

The best value I see right now is with Ole Miss. The number implies less than a 10% chance the Rebels win the title game. But consider that Lane Kiffin and Co. finished the 2024 season as the No. 2 team in SP+ and the No. 4 team in Kelley Ford’s power ratings. The Rebels also ranked seventh in Game on Paper’s net opponent-adjusted EPA-per-play metric, notably ahead of Oregon, SMU, Tennessee, and Alabama.

Kiffin had his best team yet in 2024. I believed them to be the best team in the SEC. But they were too wasteful at the worst times and now they have to replace huge chunks of what made them great. Still, I like the potential at quarterback with an absolutely loaded room of receivers and Kiffin has proven he can plug the right defensive pieces in from the portal.

The Rebels face LSU at home and Georgia on the road. Other conference road games include Kentucky, Oklahoma, and Mississippi State. They get South Carolina at home. They get Florida off a pseudo-bye (with a game against The Citadel the week prior).

Kiffin has been right there, but has just been unable to take that last step. He insisted after a bowl beatdown of Duke that Ole Miss was still climbing, and I imagine there will be plenty of internal motivation within those walls this offseason to keep pushing.

With these rosters still in flux, I’d back Ole Miss at this point before backing Tennessee or Alabama.

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Big Ten Championship odds

odds via FanDuel

The Big Ten has been remarkably predictable since the switch to East/West divisional designations in 2014. Ohio State made and won the title game 5 times in the first 7 years of that structure. And from 2014 through 2023, the 5 non-Ohio State teams that won the Big Ten were the only Big Ten teams to beat Ohio State in the regular season. Michigan State did it in 2015, Penn State did it in 2016, and then Michigan did it 3 consecutive times from 2021-23. This past season, Oregon was the best non-Ohio State team and, imagine that, Oregon won the Big Ten title.

So, it’ll be Ohio State in 2025 or it’ll be the best Big Ten team not named Ohio State.

That’s reflected in the odds, with only 4 schools holding better than a 5% chance to win the conference. Given all of Oregon’s departures, Ohio State and Penn State are the only teams on the board with real value.

It’s also not really a surprise that the Big Ten is this way. Ohio State recruits in a different stratosphere from the Minnesotas, Wisconsins, and Marylands of the conference. Penn State has been close, though it hasn’t gotten the quarterback right. Oregon showed it was a worthy contender right away.

And I don’t want to seem dismissive of the Ducks, who are recruiting at a championship level under Dan Lanning. However, Oregon has to replace its top 2 receivers, its top running back, both tackles, its best defensive end, its best defensive tackle, its best corner, and its quarterback, among other things. Perhaps Dante Moore made the absolute most of his redshirt year learning from Dillon Gabriel, but Oregon will be pivoting from 2 of the most experienced passers in the history of college football to a player with 14 career appearances. And Moore will have to lead Oregon on the road against Penn State on Sept. 27.

If I’m betting on a team not named Ohio State to win the Big Ten in 2025, I’m betting on Penn State.

The Nittany Lions might get the same kind of senior boost that Ohio State got this past season. Drew Allar, Nic Singleton, and Kaytron Allen all opted to return to school. Dani Dennis-Sutton and AJ Harris are back on the defensive side of the football. James Franklin added a couple of receivers in the transfer portal and then pulled off one of the biggest coups we’ve seen in recent years by convincing Jim Knowles to come over from Ohio State to coordinate the Nittany Lions defense.

Drew Allar has to take a step as a passer to become more lethal, but there’s something to be said about having a quarterback with as much experience as Allar. Riley Leonard wasn’t the greatest passer and still led his team to a national title game appearance in 2024. In fairness, Will Howard (third) was the only quarterback to start a CFP semifinal game this past season who ranked in the top 5 nationally in EPA per dropback.

So long as the defense holds up without Abdul Carter and Kobe King, Penn State will be right back in the mix for the Big Ten title. At the current price, I like them much better than Oregon.

ACC Championship odds

odds via FanDuel

The ACC has been a lot like the Big Ten over the last decade-plus. Clemson makes it to Charlotte and wins the title game, or the team that beat Clemson in the regular season wins the title game.

Clemson won the ACC in 2011, from 2015 to 2020, in 2022, and then again in 2024.

Florida State won it from 2012-14. During that 3-year stretch, Clemson lost 4 conference games. Three of them were to Florida State.

Pitt won the league in 2021. It beat Clemson in October that season to shut the Tigers out of the title game.

Florida State won the league in 2023. It beat Clemson at Clemson in September that year.

Dabo Swinney might not have the national title threat he once had, but he’s still the king of the ACC.

And that isn’t likely to change in 2025. The Tigers return an experienced quarterback (a recurring theme throughout this piece), boast a talented collection of receivers (!!!), return an elite defensive end (TJ Parker), and upgraded at defensive coordinator.

Tom Allen has to get the defense back to standard in 2025, but he has crafted elite defenses with less. Clemson slipped to 46th in adjusted EPA per play allowed in 2024. The Tigers ranked among the top 20 teams in that metric every year from 2014-23. With another year of synergy between Cade Klubnik and Garrett Riley, it’s reasonable to expect the Clemson offense to be even better in 2025. (It ranked 30th in EPA per play in 2024.)

In league play, Clemson will host SMU and Florida State and it’ll face Georgia Tech and Louisville on the road. The Tigers don’t play Miami.

I like Clemson to be better in 2025. I think Miami takes a step back. Syracuse, Pitt, and SMU all take steps back as well. Florida State can’t get any worse, but I’m not a fan of what Mike Norvell is doing at quarterback post-Jordan Travis. North Carolina is in rebuild mode.

Duke is an interesting team, a program that saw an uptick in investment this offseason to land Tulane transfer quarterback Darian Mensah and OU transfer wideout Andrel Anthony. But the Blue Devils would have to beat Clemson at Clemson. Duke hasn’t won a game at Memorial Stadium since 1980, and it is 0-15 there since.

Two dark-horse teams stand out — Louisville and Virginia Tech. The former will be ranked to begin the 2025 season. The latter could be a chaos-bringer.

Jeff Brohm went out and plucked Miller Moss from the transfer portal, whose superstar game against the Cards in the 2023 Holiday Bowl secured him the starting job in a Lincoln Riley offense last season. Moss wasn’t great, but he wasn’t the sole reason for USC’s offensive failures in the way his mid-season benching would suggest. And we know Brohm can absolutely get the most out of his quarterbacks.

The Cards also return wideout Chris Bell and breakout-in-the-making tailback Isaac Brown. And Brohm has a top-20 transfer class that includes 21 players. Coastal Carolina transfer Clev Lubin looks like a gem. He was the second-best edge player in the G5 last season, according to PFF’s defensive grading. Lubin had the best pass-rushing grade (92.0) of any G5 edge and also had an 88.5 grade in coverage.

Louisville had the point differential of a 9.5-win team last season and it won 9 games — a little unlucky. All 4 of the Cards’ regular-season losses were by 7 points or less. They went 3-4 in single-possession games.

Next season, they have to play Pitt, Miami, Virginia Tech, and SMU on the road, but they also get Clemson at home on a Friday night in November. If I’m looking for an ACC loss on Clemson’s 2025 schedule, that’s the game I’m circling.

As for Virginia Tech, they’re a much deeper sleeper, but I flagged them as a potential bounce-back candidate when updating my Pythagorean expectations for 2024. The Hokies had the point differential of an 8-win team but managed only 6 wins. Injuries and inconsistency jumbled the quarterback spot, and VT wasted what was a pretty good defensive year.

The Hokies finished 27th nationally and third in the ACC in defensive EPA per play. Offenses were pretty all-or-nothing against the defense. This offseason, coach Brent Pry hired Arizona Cardinals linebackers coach Sam Siefkes to be his new defensive coordinator. Siefkes was viewed as a rising star in coaching circles, worked in one of the most innovative defenses in the National Football League, and has collegiate experience calling a defense. If that hire proves to be a shrewd one, the Hokies will find themselves in a ton of tight ball games.

If Kyron Drones can get through a season fully healthy, VT will be a pain for teams because of its ability to run the football. Drones is more than capable as a runner, and Terion Stewart (a Bowling Green transfer) should be one of the ACC’s better running backs next season. Drones has to be better as a passer and processor in 2025, but he’ll be pushed all offseason by Pop Watson III and with Pry entering a must-win season, there’s a ton of pressure here to perform at a higher level on offense.

The Hokies get Cal, Louisville, and Miami at home. They won’t face SMU or Clemson in the regular season. Conference road games include NC State, Georgia Tech, Florida State, and Virginia.

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The post Betting Stuff: Way-too-early odds, picks to win conference championships in 2025 appeared first on Saturday Down South.

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By: Derek Peterson
Title: Betting Stuff: Way-too-early odds, picks to win conference championships in 2025
Sourced From: www.saturdaydownsouth.com/college-football/betting-stuff-way-too-early-odds-picks-to-win-conference-championships-in-2025/
Published Date: Fri, 31 Jan 2025 23:39:44 +0000