Nextgen Oscarwatcher: What to Take Away From the Shortlists

It’s been about a week since the Oscar shortlists. In two weeks from now, the first televised award ceremony will take place (that being, the Critics’ Choice Awards), so all one can do in this “calm before the storm” set of days is to analyze what has been given regarding the Oscar race (in addition to celebrating the Holidays and reminiscing on the year in film).

Wicked: For Good and Sinners Overperform

If there was one big takeaway from the shortlists, it was both the expected strength of Ryan Coogler’s Sinners showing up in eight placements, and Jon M. Chu’s Wicked: For Good showing up in eight placements as well. Despite underwhelming reviews from both critics and audiences, in addition to being a sequel (which doesn’t tend to bode well in Oscar prospects, given history), many still believe there is a chance of a resurgence (or a consistent presence for the second part of the Wicked story).

However, what to be cautious about is the idea that shortlists can often create the illusion of strength rather than reflect actual nominations. Films like Mary Poppins Returns, Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Story, and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever all noticeably hit every mark possible (even overperformed) on the shortlists released, but no Best Picture nom or surprising amount of strength came up during the Oscar nominations. Shortlists can tell a part of the story, but not the whole story, and with other precursors left to be unveiled, it’s too early to say where Jon M. Chu’s film will land.

The Testament of Ann Lee and Jay Kelly continues to dwindle in prospects.

If there ever was a case for a film that has struggled to make its presence known while having a ton of deserved prospects that should be rewarded, it’s Mona Fastvold’s audacious musical. Though not for everybody, it’s a true gem, and with Searchlight’s acquisition of the film, many believed (including yours truly) there was a chance of Oscar presence.

Nevertheless, missing the shortlists in both Original Score and Original Song (for a musical) shows significant hurdles and suggests that people might not connect with the film. At this rate, Searchlight’s best chance is either a lone nomination for Seyfried (or, like another musical that struggles, Joe Wright’s Cyrano, a nomination for its beloved costume design)

Noah Baumbach’s Jay Kelly also struggled, only landing in Original Score and missing the coveted Best Casting and Best Cinematography shortlists, signifying a potential disconnect, though not nearly as detrimental as Fastvold’s film, its prospects are dwindling and unless the Guilds come out in full force of the film, it’s chance of being shut out entirely is more probable than one would have assumed a few weeks ago.

International Films continue to grow and thrive.

With the ever-growing International Voting Body of the Industry, one would hypothesize that a greater number of international films would appear on Oscar shortlists. Not only did this turn out to be true, but it was more pronounced than many expected.

In addition to the 15 films that made the international short list, many appeared on other shortlists, such as Germany’s Sound of Falling in cinematography, Japan’s Kokuho in Makeup and Hairstyling, and Brazil’s The Secret Agent, Norway’s Sentimental Value, and Spain’s Sirât in Casting.

Sirât specifically had a strong shortlist showing, getting in anywhere it possibly could have. Though this could also be a red herring regarding its nomination haul, a placement in International Feature feels fairly likely, with which of the original projected five could be a mystery, but Neon going five for five in the category is more likely than ever before.

Oscar Predictions For Week of December 22, 2025

This week, several changes have been made, both above and below the line, across certain categories.

• Sorry, Baby in Original Screenplay over Jay Kelly (fitting the lone screenplay slot we get annually)
• Frankenstein back in Adapted Screenplay, this time over No Other Choice
• Weapons in Best Casting over Sentimental Value (both due to the narrative of the film having to recast the entire ensemble, plus to find a secondary nomination to justify Madigan winning)
• Documentary Feature has changed with Come See Me In The Good Light and Cover-Up in the lineup now, but it is always unpredictable
• Sirǎt over The Voice of Hind Rajab in International Feature
• F1 in Editing over Hamnet
• Marty Supreme in Production Design over Avatar: Fire and Ash
• F1 in Original Score over Marty Supreme
• Sinners in Visual Effects over Mickey 17 due to the latter missing the shortlist
• One Battle After Another in Makeup and Hairstyling over Weapons due to the latter missing the shortlist
• Train Dreams in Original Song over The Testament of Ann Lee because of the shortlist omission.
• Sinners is #1 in Score over One Battle After Another

(As a Bonus, I am throwing darts at a dartboard and predicting the three short categories)

Best Picture
1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. Hamnet
4. Marty Supreme
5. It Was Just An Accident
6. Frankenstein
7. Sentimental Value
8. Bugonia
9. The Secret Agent
10. Train Dreams

Alts: Wicked: For Good, Jay Kelly, Weapons, Blue Moon, The Voice of Hind Rajab, No Other
Choice, The Testament of Ann Lee, Avatar: Fire and Ash

Best Director

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
2. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just An Accident
3. Ryan Coogler, Sinners
4. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
5. Guillermo Del Toro, Frankenstein

Alts: Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme,  Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value

Best Actress

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
2. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
3. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
4. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another
5. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee

Alts: Emma Stone, Bugonia Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good, Kate Hudson,
Song Sung Blue

Best Actor

1. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
2. Timotheé Chalamet, Marty Supreme
3. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
4. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

Alts: Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams, Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me From
Nowhere, George Clooney, Jay Kelly

Best Supporting Actress

1. Amy Madigan, Weapons
2. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
3. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
4. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
5. Odessa A’zion, Marty Supreme

Alts: Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value, Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good, Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme

Best Supporting Actor

1. Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another
2. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
3. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
4. Paul Mescal, Hamnet
5. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly

Alt: Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein

Best Original Screenplay

1. Sinners
2. It Was Just An Accident
3. Sentimental Value
4. Marty Supreme
5. Sorry, Baby

Alts: Jay Kelly, Weapons, The Secret Agent

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. One Battle After Another
2. Hamnet
3. Train Dreams
4. Bugonia
5. Frankenstein

Alts: No Other Choice, Wake Up Dead Man

Casting

1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. Hamnet
4. Marty Supreme
5. Weapons

Alts: Sentimental Value, The Secret Agent

Best International Feature

1. It Was Just An Accident
2. Sentimental Value
3. No Other Choice
4. The Secret Agent
5. Sirǎt

(Alts: The Voice of Hind Rajab, Left-Handed Girl, The President’s Cake)

Best Documentary Feature

1. The Perfect Neighbor
2. 2000 Meters to Andriivka
3. Mr. Nobody Against Putin
4. Come See Me In The Good Light
5. Cover-Up

(Alts: The Alabama Solution, Seeds or Cutting Through Rocks)

Best Animated Feature

1. Kpop Demon Hunters
2. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
3. Zootopia 2
4. Arco
5. Elio

(Alts: Scarlet and A Magnificent Life)

Best Cinematography

1. Sinners
2. Hamnet
3. One Battle After Another
4. Train Dreams
5. Frankenstein

Best Editing

1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. Marty Supreme
4. F1
5. It Was Just An Accident

Best Production Design

1. Frankenstein
2. Wicked: For Good
3. Hamnet
4. Sinners
5. Marty Supreme

Best Costume Design

1. Frankenstein
2. Wicked: For Good
3. Sinners
4. Hamnet
5. The Testament of Ann Lee

Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Frankenstein
2. Wicked: For Good
3. The Smashing Machine
4. Sinners
5. One Battle After Another

Best Sound

1. Sinners
2. F1
3. One Battle After Another
4. Avatar: Fire and Ash
5. Frankenstein

Best Visual Effects

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
2. Superman
3. F1
4. Frankenstein
5. Sinners

Best Score

1. Sinners
2. One Battle After Another
3. Marty Supreme
4. Hamnet
5. F1

Best Song

1. Golden from KPop Demon Hunters
2. I Lied to You from Sinners
3. The Girl In The Bubble from Wicked: For Good
4. Dear Me from Diane Warren Relentless
5. Train Dreams from Train Dreams

Best Documentary Short

1. All the Empty Rooms
2. Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud
3. Bad Hostage
4. The Devil is Busy
5. Children No More: Were and Are Gone

Best Animated Short

1. Snow Bear
2. Autokar
3. Butterfly
4. The Girl Who Cried Pearls
5. Forevergreen

Best Live Action Short

1. Ado
2. Beyond Silence
3. The Boy with White Skin
4. Butcher’s Stain
5. Butterfly on a Wheel

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By: Scott Kernen
Title: Nextgen Oscarwatcher: What to Take Away From the Shortlists
Sourced From: www.awardsdaily.com/2025/12/22/nextgen-oscarwatcher-what-to-take-away-from-the-shortlists/
Published Date: Mon, 22 Dec 2025 17:40:41 +0000