We will update these predictions throughout awards season, so keep checking IndieWire for all our 2023 Oscar picks. Final voting is March 2 through 7, 2023. The 95th Oscars telecast will be broadcast on Sunday, March 12 and air live on ABC at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.
Our Awards Editor, TV & Film Marcus Jones joins Editor at Large Anne Thompson on the latest Oscars Predictions updates. See their previous thoughts on what to expect at the 95th Academy Awards here.
The State of the Race
Auteurs are in this year, as there’s rarely ever a complete match between Best Director and Best Original Screenplay nominees.
The Academy gave all five slots to directors who took a hands-on approach to telling a whole new story, reminding us of why we love cinema and theater-going (two things waning in an increasingly IP-driven, video on demand world).
Academy voters love a myriad of movies. And given their strength across the categories, it looks like the Best Director win comes down to three awards frontrunners: “The Fabelmans,” “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” and “The Banshees of Inisherin.”
After all, in recent years Best Director and Best Picture are often split between two different films (i.e. “The Power of the Dog” director Jane Campion won last year, but Best Picture went to “CODA”), and each nominee having multiple nods means there are almost enough Oscars to go around.
That said, Steven Spielberg’s “The Fabelmans” seems like the only film that could win both Best Picture and Best Director. The film icon’s Best Original Screenplay nod alongside Tony Kushner is his first time he’s ever been nominated for his writing. Past screenplay nominees Martin McDonagh or Todd Field stand more of a shot of being honored in that category. Director duo Daniels have also generated momentum for “Everything Everywhere All at Once” and could win here.
Historically though, the Directors branch has been down on co-directors, and up on international filmmakers, so “The Banshees of Inisherin” director McDonagh has a slight edge on them right now. The fact that his film is set in Ireland, unlike his last film “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” likely gave it a little more appeal to the rapidly growing number of European voters to finally recognize his prowess as a feature director (McDonagh’s one Oscar win is for Best Live Action Short). One could assume that the same group of European voters are the ones who voted Ruben Östlund in as well, but zero acting nominations for his Palme D’Or-winning ensemble comedy does not exactly bode well for his chances.
Meanwhile, “TÁR” filmmaker Field finally made it into the Best Director category two decades after making his directorial debut with Best Picture nominee “In the Bedroom,” but the polarizing Cate Blanchett vehicle has done so well in the Best Actress race that he may become the victim of the “one big win per film” trend.
Nominees are listed below in order of likelihood they will win.
Contenders:
Steven Spielberg (“The Fabelmans”)
Martin McDonagh (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
Daniel Scheinert and Daniel Kwan (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
Todd Field (“TÁR”)
Ruben Östlund (“Triangle of Sadness”)
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By: Anne Thompson
Title: Oscars 2023: Best Director Predictions
Sourced From: www.indiewire.com/feature/2023-oscars-best-director-predictions-1234747273/
Published Date: Fri, 27 Jan 2023 21:30:22 +0000
