2026 Oscar Predictions: Locking in Our Final Predictions On Oscar Nomination’s Eve

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The story of the American film industry will be told tomorrow morning when the Oscars are announced.

After over 26 years predicting the Oscars, I feel somewhat melancholy over what the game has become. It feels more rigged this year, or these past few years, than it ever has. When we seem to be debating the fifth slot in nearly every category, where the SAG and DGA matched for the first time ever (or since 2004, more or less) you know that something significant has changed. Netflix has announced that the Matt Damon/Ben Affleck film The Rip debuted on the app with 41 million views. That is supposed to somehow comfort those who see the writing on the wall and fret the sale of the WB to the giant octupus that Netflix has become.

Come on in, the water’s fine, Netflix seems to be saying. Ben Affleck and Matt Damon have discussed how it is so difficult now just to break even on making a movie, why wouldn’t they go over to Netflix when they have a $100 million movie that has no chance of making its money back.

Warner Bros. was the studio that could this year, with four films that seemed to do well (really, just three did well but let’s go with the narrative). And that could be the story of this year, you know, the one the Penske-owned trades or the NY Times or any of the sites now fully bought off by the studios will talk about? Don’t want to make Netflix mad so let’s say nothing and hope for the best. Everybody gets paid so what’s the problem?

Filmmakers get paid, publicists get paid, actors and writers and tech artists get paid, bloggers and journalists get paid. So that’s that, right? Devolution and collapse. Back in 2014, when Birdman won, the industry was lamenting the industry’s superhero movie addiction because it was making them so much damn money, to quote Mel Gibson in Tequila Sunrise, “nobody wants me to quit.” But the actors were sad because it wasn’t acting. So they gave their top prize, enthusiastically, to Birdman — a film almost no one has heard of, watched or will ever watch again, no offense.

In hopes of salvaging their reputations, both the Golden Globes and the Academy have flooded their membership with younger voters chosen mainly because they’re not white and they’re not male. That has had the unintended consquence of a voting body that mostly doesn’t give a hoot about the American film industry – or America at all. And increasingly, neither do the streamers like Netflix, the bloggers and journalists, etc. Everybody gets paid.

When Best Picture is announced tomorrow morning, it will go one of two ways. The first, Warner Bros. will get all four of their successful (three but okay) films in: One Battle After Another, Sinners, F1 and Weapons. The story will be the industry cares about its own survival and will reward success. Fight back, they will say, don’t sell the WB to Netflix because that really is the end of everything.

Or there will be three International Features with double nominations in the International Feature category and Best Picture, which says no, we don’t care about the American film industry because why should we? “It’s a dying city, you read Death in Venice.” “You didn’t read Death in Venice until I gave it to you.”

Supposedly 41 million people watched The Rip and that’s supposed to be the good news. Maybe it is. Maybe more people will see it and talk about it. At the other end of that, however, is that you have to be a Netflix subscriber. You have to belong to yet another massive corporate monopoly that takes your money every month with the agreement that you can watch anything you want on the app for an entire month for basically what it costs for one movie ticket. The future does care about old timers like me who grew up in movie theaters. Maybe it is just over. I guess we’ll see.

The Academy should reduce Best Picture from 10 to 5. Now is the time. This year proved it. But maybe that doesn’t matter either. My sister called me up and said, “I’ve never heard of any of these movies except Sinners.” Perhaps the Oscars, like the industry, will have to erase borders and embrace global cinema. Maybe having ten is the only way to do that.

Best Picture and Best Director

You could probably do worse than just sticking with the PGA-10 and the DGA-5. You’re likely to miss fewer than if you try to guess which will be picked and which will be shut out. It seems like the toss-up is between Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value and Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme and potentially, because he is not on the BAFTA longlist, Guillermo Del Toro.

Picture is about a solid 8 out of 10, with two fluid slots. That’s how it seems at the moment.

Scott Kernen brought up a point that many people are predicting a few films getting all of the top categories and that usually they don’t. So I went back to 2009 to see which films got the top category nominations: Picture, Director, Screenplay, Acting and Editing.

It’s easy without editing, but since I have F1 in my editing categories, that means I have four films hitting all of those markers:

What’s likely not to happen is this:

I don’t have that. I have director out for Marty Supreme (which might be wrong) and Frankenstein out for Editing (which also might be wrong), giving us the maximum number of four films hitting all markers, which is the most we’ve seen since 2009. Could this year break that record? Of course. This is what I have:

I am going with the PGA-10 but not the DGA-5.

Now, the charts and below them, our predictions. We’ve talked enough about it. Let’s just get it done.

Sasha Stone

BEST PICTURE
————————————————————
1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. Hamnet
4. Marty Supreme
5. Frankenstein
6. Sentimental Value
7. Bugonia
8. Weapons
9. Train Dreams
10. F1

BEST DIRECTOR
————————————————————
1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
2. Chloe Zhao, Hamnet
3. Ryan Coogler, Sinners
4. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
5. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein

BEST ACTRESS
————————————————————
1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
2. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
3. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
4. Emma Stone, Bugonia
5. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another

BEST ACTOR
————————————————————
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
3. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
4. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
5. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
————————————————————
1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
2. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
3. Amy Madigan, Weapons
4. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
5. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
————————————————————
1. Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another
2. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
3. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
4. Paul Mescal, Hamnet
5. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
————————————————————
1. One Battle After Another
2. Hamnet
3. Bugonia
4. Train Dreams
5. Frankenstein

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
————————————————————
1. Sinners
2. Sentimental Value
3. Marty Supreme
4. Weapons
5. Blue Moon

BEST CASTING
————————————————————
1. Sinners
2. One Battle after Another
3. Frankenstein
4. Hamnet
5. Weapons

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
————————————————————
1. Sinners
2. One Battle after Another
3. Frankenstein
4. Train Dreams
5. Hamnet

BEST DOCUMENTARY
————————————————————
1. The Perfect Neighbor
2. The Alabama Solution
3. 2000 Meters to Andriivka
4. Cover-Up
5. Mr. Nobody against Putin

DOCUMENTARY SHORT
————————————————————
1. All the Empty Rooms
2. Bad Hostage
3. Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud
4. All the Walls Came Down
5. We Were the Scenery

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
————————————————————
1. Norway, “Sentimental Value”
2. Brazil, “The Secret Agent”
3. South Korea, “No Other Choice”
4. Spain, “Sirât”
5. France, “It Was Just an Accident”

BEST EDITING
————————————————————
1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. Marty Supreme
4. F1
5. Hamnet

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
————————————————————
1. Frankenstein
2. Wicked: For Good
3. Sinners
4. Hamnet
5. Marty Supreme

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
————————————————————
1. Frankenstein
2. Sinners
3. Wicked: For Good
4. Hamnet
5. Avatar: Fire and Ash

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
————————————————————
1. Frankenstein
2. Marty Supreme
3. Sinners
4. The Smashing Machine
5. Wicked: For Good

ORIGINAL SCORE
————————————————————
1. Sinners
2. F1
3. One Battle after Another
4. Train Dreams
5. Sirât

ORIGINAL SONG
————————————————————
1. I Lied To You from Sinners
2. Golden from KPop Demon Hunters
3. Dream As One from Avatar: Fire and Ash
4. Last Time (I Seen The Sun) from Sinners
5. Drive from F1

BEST SOUND
————————————————————
1. One Battle after Another
2. Sinners
3. F1
4. Wicked: For Good
5. Avatar: Fire and Ash

VISUAL EFFECTS
————————————————————
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
2. Sinners
3. Superman
4. Frankenstein
5. F1

ANIMATED SHORT
————————————————————
1. Retirement Plan
2. Forevergreen
3. Snow Bear
4. The Girl Who Cried Pearls
5. Playing God

LIVE ACTION SHORT
————————————————————
1. Two People Exchanging Saliva
2. Rock, Paper, Scissors
3. Ado
4. The Singers
5. Beyond Silence

Scott Kernen

BEST PICTURE
————————————————————
1. One Battle After Another
2. Hamnet
3. Sinners
4. Marty Supreme
5. Frankenstein
6. Sentimental Value
7. Bugonia
8. The Secret Agent
9. Train Dreams
10. It Was Just an Accident

BEST DIRECTOR
————————————————————
1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners
3. Chloe Zhao, Hamnet
4. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
5. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein

BEST ACTRESS
————————————————————
1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
2. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
3. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
4. Emma Stone, Bugonia
5. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another

BEST ACTOR
————————————————————
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
3. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
4. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
5. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
————————————————————
1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
2. Amy Madigan, Weapons
3. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
4. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
5. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
————————————————————
1. Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another
2. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
3. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
4. Paul Mescal, Hamnet
5. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
————————————————————
1. One Battle After Another
2. Hamnet
3. Bugonia
4. Train Dreams
5. Frankenstein

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
————————————————————
1. Sinners
2. Sentimental Value
3. Marty Supreme
4. It Was Just an Accident
5. Sorry, Baby

BEST CASTING
————————————————————
1. Sinners
2. One Battle after Another
3. Hamnet
4. Marty Supreme
5. Weapons

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
————————————————————
1. Sinners
2. Train Dreams
3. One Battle after Another
4. Frankenstein
5. Marty Supreme

BEST DOCUMENTARY
————————————————————
1. The Perfect Neighbor
2. 2000 Meters to Andriivka
3. Apocalypse in the Tropics
4. The Alabama Solution
5. Cover-Up

DOCUMENTARY SHORT
————————————————————
1. All the Empty Rooms
2. Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud
3. Cashing Out
4. All the Walls Came Down
5. The Devil Is Busy

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
————————————————————
1. Brazil, “The Secret Agent”
2. Norway, “Sentimental Value”
3. France, “It Was Just an Accident”
4. Spain, “Sirât”
5. Taiwan, “Left-Handed Girl”

BEST EDITING
————————————————————
1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. Marty Supreme
4. F1
5. Hamnet

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
————————————————————
1. Frankenstein
2. Sinners
3. Wicked: For Good
4. Hamnet
5. Hedda

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
————————————————————
1. Frankenstein
2. Sinners
3. Wicked: For Good
4. Hamnet
5. Marty Supreme

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
————————————————————
1. Frankenstein
2. Sinners
3. Wicked: For Good
4. The Smashing Machine
5. Marty Supreme

ORIGINAL SCORE
————————————————————
1. Sinners
2. One Battle after Another
3. Hamnet
4. Frankenstein
5. Marty Supreme

ORIGINAL SONG
————————————————————
1. Golden from KPop Demon Hunters
2. I Lied To You from Sinners
3. Dear Me from Diane Warren: Relentless
4. Train Dreams from Train Dreams
5. The Girl In The Bubble from Wicked: For Good

BEST SOUND
————————————————————
1. F1
2. Sinners
3. One Battle after Another
4. Frankenstein
5. Sirât

VISUAL EFFECTS
————————————————————
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
2. F1
3. Sinners
4. Superman
5. The Lost Bus

ANIMATED SHORT
————————————————————
1. Snow Bear
2. Autokar
3. Butterfly
4. The Girl Who Cried Pearls
5. Éiru

LIVE ACTION SHORT
————————————————————
1. Rock, Paper, Scissors
2. Ado
3. Beyond Silence
4. Two People Exchanging Saliva
5. The Singers

Jeremy Jentzen

BEST PICTURE
————————————————————
1. Sinners
2. Hamnet
3. One Battle After Another
4. Marty Supreme
5. Sentimental Value
6. Frankenstein
7. Bugonia
8. Train Dreams
9. The Secret Agent
10. F1

BEST DIRECTOR
————————————————————
1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners
2. Chloe Zhao, Hamnet
3. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
4. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
5. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value

BEST ACTRESS
————————————————————
1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
2. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
3. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
4. Emma Stone, Bugonia
5. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue

BEST ACTOR
————————————————————
1. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
2. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
3. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
4. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
5. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
————————————————————
1. Amy Madigan, Weapons
2. Odessa A’zion, Marty Supreme
3. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
5. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
————————————————————
1. Paul Mescal, Hamnet
2. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
3. Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another
4. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
5. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
————————————————————
1. One Battle After Another
2. Hamnet
3. Bugonia
4. Train Dreams
5. Frankenstein

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
————————————————————
1. Sinners
2. Sentimental Value
3. Marty Supreme
4. It Was Just an Accident
5. Weapons

BEST CASTING
————————————————————
1. Frankenstein
2. Hamnet
3. One Battle after Another
4. Sinners
5. Sentimental Value

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
————————————————————
1. Hamnet
2. Train Dreams
3. Frankenstein
4. Sinners
5. One Battle after Another

BEST DOCUMENTARY
————————————————————
1. The Alabama Solution
2. Mr. Nobody against Putin
3. The Perfect Neighbor
4. Apocalypse in the Tropics
5. 2000 Meters to Andriivka

DOCUMENTARY SHORT
————————————————————
1. All the Empty Rooms
2. Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud
3. Bad Hostage
4. The Devil Is Busy
5. All the Walls Came Down

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
————————————————————
1. France, “It Was Just an Accident”
2. Brazil, “The Secret Agent”
3. Norway, “Sentimental Value”
4. Spain, “Sirât”
5. Taiwan, “Left-Handed Girl”

BEST EDITING
————————————————————
1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. Marty Supreme
4. Hamnet
5. F1

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
————————————————————
1. Frankenstein
2. Wicked: For Good
3. Sinners
4. Hamnet
5. Marty Supreme

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
————————————————————
1. Frankenstein
2. Sinners
3. Wicked: For Good
4. One Battle After Another
5. Marty Supreme

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
————————————————————
1. Frankenstein
2. Sinners
3. Wicked: For Good
4. The Smashing Machine
5. One Battle after Another

ORIGINAL SCORE
————————————————————
1. Frankenstein
2. Marty Supreme
3. Sinners
4. One Battle after Another
5. Hamnet

ORIGINAL SONG
————————————————————
1. Golden from KPop Demon Hunters
2. The Girl In The Bubble from Wicked: For Good
3. I Lied To You from Sinners
4. Train Dreams from Train Dreams
5. Dear Me from Diane Warren: Relentless

BEST SOUND
————————————————————
1. Sirât
2. F1
3. Frankenstein
4. Sinners
5. One Battle after Another

VISUAL EFFECTS
————————————————————
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
2. F1
3. Frankenstein
4. Superman
5. Wicked: For Good

ANIMATED SHORT
————————————————————
1. Autokar
2. Éiru
3. Butterfly
4. Snow Bear
5. Forevergreen

LIVE ACTION SHORT
————————————————————
1. Ado
2. Beyond Silence
3. Two People Exchanging Saliva
4. The Boy with White Skin
5. Butcher’s Stain

-----------------------

By: Sasha Stone
Title: 2026 Oscar Predictions: Locking in Our Final Predictions On Oscar Nomination’s Eve
Sourced From: www.awardsdaily.com/2026/01/22/2026-oscar-predictions-locking-in-our-final-predictions-on-oscar-nominations-eve/
Published Date: Thu, 22 Jan 2026 00:20:19 +0000