Super Bowl MVP predictions: Best bets for former SEC stars

Super Bowl Sunday is finally here! The Super Bowl MVP props market is also very active with numerous former SEC players high up on the odds board.

Below you’ll find 2 best bets for Super Bowl 59 MVP. Both picks are for players on the Eagles, which is not a coincidence. History says that if the Chiefs win, Patrick Mahomes is extremely likely to be credited with the win and take home the MVP prize. Mahomes has won Super Bowl MVP for all 3 of his previous wins on this stage.

That was even the case 2 years ago when these same teams met in the Super Bowl despite former Mizzou linebacker Nick Bolton registering a crucial scoop-and-score. Mahomes’ likelihood to win Super Bowl MVP (+105) also nearly mirrors the KC money line (-115) at most sports betting apps.

Super Bowl MVP bets and picks

With all of that in mind, here are 2 Super Bowl MVP bets to consider ahead of the the big game:

Jalen Hurts (+375 via BetMGM)

If you like the Eagles to win, betting Hurts at +375 to be Super Bowl MVP makes a lot of sense. Quarterbacks have historically dominated this award — 13 of the last 18 players to earn the nod have been the winning team’s quarterback.

Hurts does have a strong supporting cast, so it’s plausible one of his teammates would take home the honor in the event that Philly wins. But I don’t see that as a particularly strong likelihood and there’s a tremendous amount of value on Hurts at this number compared to where Patrick Mahomes is priced (+105).

Hurts is not generally thought of as an elite quarterback, but his numbers were excellent this season: 68% completion percentage while averaging 8 yards per attempt and a career-best 103.7 passer rating. Of course, Hurts is also a major threat with his legs as he rushed for 630 yards and 14 touchdowns this season.

There’s also this — the Chiefs’ defense appears to be a good matchup for Hurts. Kansas City defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo notably deploys a lot of man coverage, which plays into Hurts’ strengths. It’s particularly good for his connection with receiver AJ Brown, who graded out as the NFL’s top receiver vs. man coverage this season, per Pro Football Focus. According to PFF, Brown was targeted 49 times against man this year (including the playoffs). Those targets resulted in 35 catches for 529 yards and 6 touchdowns. 

RELATED: Super Bowl 59 MVP betting: Which former SEC stars have the best odds?

Jalen Carter (+6600 via BetMGM)

If someone other than Hurts is going to win Super Bowl MVP for the Eagles, defensive lineman Jalen Carter is my favorite long-shot pick. Carter was tremendously disruptive all season up front for Philadelphia as he totaled 12 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks. He’s also already registered 2 sacks and 5 quarterback hits during the postseason.

But the reason why I like Carter for Super Bowl MVP is because of the matchup he will have against Kansas City. The Chiefs’ O-Line has been vulnerable late in the season, particularly with Mike Caliendo at left guard. According to Pro Football Focus, Caliendo has a 43.6 pass blocking grade across more than 200 pass-blocking snaps this season. That’s a dreadful figure — one of the worst in the NFL at that volume of snaps.

Carter is certainly capable of spending a good portion of Sunday evening in the Kansas City backfield — and that’s before taking into account the favorable matchup. If Carter has his best game, any havoc he creates in the form of sacks, tackles for loss, forced fumbles or other key stops will go a long way toward potentially earning Super Bowl MVP honors.

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Super Bowl MVP odds for other former SEC stars

Of course, there are more medium-and-long-shot Super Bowl MVP bets to consider. Philadelphia’s top 2 receivers, AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith both hail from SEC programs. The Chiefs have a couple as well in Xavier Worthy (Texas) and Marquise Brown (Oklahoma), although those 2 played in the Big 12 during their college days.

Here’s where some of the top former SEC players currently sit on the odds leaderboard for Super Bowl MVP at BetMGM:

• Eagles QB Jalen Hurts | +375 | Oklahoma and Alabama
• Chiefs WR Xavier Worthy | +3000 | Texas
• Eagles WR AJ Brown | +3500 | Ole Miss
• Eagles WR DeVonta Smith | +6600 | Alabama
• Eagles DL Jalen Carter | +6600 | Georgia
• Chiefs DL Chris Jones | +6600 | Mississippi State
• Chiefs WR Marquise Brown | +12500 | Oklahoma
• Eagles DB C.J. Gardner-Johnson | +25000 | Florida
• Chiefs DL Charles Omenihu | +25000 | Texas
• Eagles LB Nolan Smith | +25000 | Georgia
• Chiefs LB Nick Bolton | +50000 | Mizzou

The post Super Bowl MVP predictions: Best bets for former SEC stars appeared first on Saturday Down South.

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By: Spenser Davis
Title: Super Bowl MVP predictions: Best bets for former SEC stars
Sourced From: www.saturdaydownsouth.com/sec-football/super-bowl-mvp-predictions-best-bets-for-former-sec-stars/
Published Date: Sun, 09 Feb 2025 13:30:00 +0000