NextGen Oscarwatcher: The Calm Before the Storm of Cannes

As alluded to in many posts before this one, the state of the awards race (or lack thereof at the moment) is one of ambiguity, where any theory or concept about narrative is as legitimate as any other individual’s currently. People who will be attending the edition are getting ready to make the continental flight towards France (unless said person is already in Europe, which is plausible as many of the festivals’ own journalists do in fact reside there), and are wondering if the consensus that has been created by those who fervently follow the race will in fact turn out to be true.

The relationship between AMPAS and Cannes has been one that has existed for quite a long period of time, going back nearly a century at this point, but quite clearly, it’s grown much clearer over the past decade (the Parasite year being fitting as it is just the third major Cannes winner to prevail in the Best Picture race), leading to a contingency of international films, and major contenders overall, using the festival as a launchpad.

Of course, individuals can speculate which film will ultimately breakout in the 79^th edition. The most obvious one would be that of Cristian Mungiu (director of 4 Months, 3 Weeks, and 2 Days), an English-language feature in Fjord starring previous Oscar nominees Sebastian Stan and Renate Reinsve, likely to be a major hit at the festival. Alongside Mungiu’s film is Paweł Pawlikowski’s Fatherland, with Sandra Hüller and Hanns Zischler, shot in black and white and a brisk watch (82 minutes), likely to be seen by a large contingent of people. Other films to look out for include Cannes regulars like Lukas Dhont and Andrey Zvyagintsev, whose work, including Close and Coward, will be on show.

However, outside of the European filmmakers, there are works from all over the world, from previous Oscar nominated director and writer Ryusuke Hamaguchi in his French-language feature All of a Sudden, clocking in at just over three hours, and two other highly respected Asian filmmakers in Hirokazu Koreeda (two films at the festival, Sheep In The Box, and Look Back), and perhaps most anticipatingly, Na Hong Jin’s Hope, which has an ambitious science fiction storyline that is a huge gamble, and might prove to be a major talking point of the festival.

However, it’s all just noise and predictions until then. If anyone wants information on the Cannes Schedule or Cannes runtimes, it can be found here.

Some Small Oscar Changes

As with last year, I will be revising certain predictions as more information comes out. Changes this week include

• Digger to #1 in Makeup over Werwulf
• Digger in Production Design over Dune Part 3
• With some conflicting reports over Fatherland being Original or Adapted, I’ve removed it from both until more information has been revealed, so Dune: Part 3 goes into that slot
• Ray Gunn in animated feature over Julián
• Dune: Part Three in Editing over Fjord
• Sense and Sensibility in costume design over Wild Horse Nine

Alas, here they are

Best Picture

1. Wild Horse Nine
2. The Odyssey
3. Digger
4. Project Hail Mary
5. Cry to Heaven
6. Fjord
7. Fatherland
8. Dune: Part Three
9. A Place in Hell
10. Werwulf

(alts: Untitled Jesse Eisenberg film, The Social Reckoning, Hope, All of a Sudden)

Best Director

1. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine
2. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey
3. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven
4. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord
5. Paweł Pawlikowski, Fatherland

(alts: Alejandro G. Iñárritu for Digger, Christopher Miller and Phil Lord for Project Hail Mary)

Best Actor

1. Tom Cruise, Digger
2. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine
3. Matt Damon, The Odyssey
4. Sebastian Stan, Fjord
5. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary

(alt: Javier Bardem, The Beloved)

Best Actress

1. Michelle Williams, A Place In Hell
2. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland
3. Renate Reinsve, Fjord
4. Juliette Binoche, Queen At Sea
5. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie

(alt: Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning)

Best Supporting Actor

1. John Goodman, Digger
2. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven
3. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine
4. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine
5. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning

(alt: Paul Giamatti, Untitled Jesse Eisenberg Film)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine
2. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey
3. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell
4. Noma Dumezweni, Prima Facie
5. Sandra Hüller, Digger

(alt: Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades or Penélope Cruz, The Invite)

Best Original Screenplay

1. Wild Horse Nine
2. Digger
3. Fjord
4. Queen at Sea
5. A Place in Hell

(alt: Untitled Jesse Eisenberg film)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Project Hail Mary
2. Cry to Heaven
3. The Odyssey
4. All of a Sudden
5. Dune: Part Three

(alt: Fatherland if it’s in adapted)

Best Casting

1. Wild Horse Nine
2. Digger
3. The Odyssey
4. Cry to Heaven
5. The Social Reckoning

(alt: Fjord)

Best International Feature

1. Fatherland
2. All of a Sudden
3. Minotaur
4. Coward
5. Mimesis

Best Animated Feature

1. Wildwood
2. Hoppers
3. Forgotten Island
4. Toy Story 5
5. Ray Gunn

Best Documentary Feature

1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem
2. American Doctor
3. Nuisance Bear
4. When a Witness Recants
5. One in a Million

Best Cinematography

1. The Odyssey
2. Digger
3. Fatherland
4. Jack of Spades
5. Dune: Part Three

Best Editing

1. Wild Horse Nine
2. The Odyssey
3. Digger
4. Project Hail Mary
5. Dune: Part Three

Best Production Design

1. The Odyssey
2. Werwulf
3. Cry to Heaven
4. Project Hail Mary
5. Digger

Best Costume Design

1. Cry to Heaven
2. The Odyssey
3. Werwulf
4. Dune: Part Three
5. Sense and Sensibility

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Digger
2. Werwulf
3. The Odyssey
4. Clayface
5. Resident Evil

Best Visual Effects

1. Dune: Part Three
2. Project Hail Mary
3. The Odyssey
4. The End of Oak Street
5. Avengers: Doomsday

Best Sound

1. Dune: Part Three
2. Project Hail Mary
3. The Odyssey
4. Digger
5. The Uprising

Best Score

1. The Odyssey
2. Project Hail Mary
3. Wild Horse Nine
4. Disclosure Day
5. Digger

As always,

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By: Scott Kernen
Title: NextGen Oscarwatcher: The Calm Before the Storm of Cannes
Sourced From: www.awardsdaily.com/2026/05/11/nextgen-oscarwatcher-the-calm-before-the-storm-of-cannes/
Published Date: Mon, 11 May 2026 15:36:55 +0000