Nextgen Oscarwatcher: Taking the Temperature of the Above the Line Categories

We are in the stage of the Awards Season that I would like to call the “calm before the storm” with a clear consensus forming following the first two major precursor nominations in the presence of the Golden Globes and the Critics’ Choice (though neither is industry-affiliated), with only speculation and regional critics really filling in the blanks until January.

Rather than spotlight each category individually, it seems best to look at the top nine* Oscar categories and see where the heat is, or what is considered a competitive win. Call if “Frontrunners and Challengers” like our Podcast, or something else, but here is a look at the above-the-line Oscar contenders at this current moment in time.

Best Picture

Outside of perhaps Best Actress and Best Director, there is no clearer above-the-line frontrunner than Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another. Winning LAFCA, NYFCC, the Gotham Independent Spirit Award, and the National Board of Review’s Top Film category, it seems almost like underexaggerating to suggest this might be out in front. The question then becomes whether there could be a film that challenges it.

A possible alternative remains Chloe Zhao’s Hamnet. Absent the political hit of One Battle, it is universal in its emotional impact, which can sometimes play well on a preferential ballot. Voters vote with their hearts – and though One Battle seems to have every vote locked up, this remains a potential spoiler.

Then there is Ryan Coogler’s Sinners, which, despite its early release date and horror genre, has remained as much of a staple in the Best Picture Race as Warner Bros’s Best Picture heavyweight in OBAA. Leading Critics’ Choice nominations and performing well at the Golden Globes, it’s perhaps logical to state that Coogler’s audacious swing is in fact the true competitor to PTA, but whether or not the film resonates with the more high-brow, international academy voters remains to be seen.

The rest is there for a nomination, and though international films like Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value or Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just An Accident might be in the mix, especially to perform well at the Golden Globes, the Best Picture win potential might be challenging to make the overall case for.

Frontrunner: One Battle After Another
Challengers: Sinners, Hamnet

Best Director
Like Best Picture, there is a clear consensus on who the frontrunner for the Oscar truly is: Paul Thomas Anderson. Winning the NBR for Director, and LAFCA, in addition to the “it’s his time” narrative with his most ambitious outing, it seems almost impossible to imagine a world where he doesn’t prevail, let alone in Best Director.

The challengers to PTA include the aforementioned Chloé Zhao for Hamnet, Ryan Coogler for Sinners, and, perhaps most convincingly, Jafar Panahi for It Was Just An Accident. Known for making politically challenging films his whole life, Panahi has been receiving honor after honor at film festivals, and prevailed at both the NYFCC and Gotham Independent Spirit. Though Original Screenplay might be more of a place for recognition (though he is in a battle with Trier and Coogler there), many voters have singled out his direction specifically. There is a world where a precursor like the Golden Globes, or even the BAFTA, might look for a more international alternative to PTA, or maybe it’s all false speculation and PTA goes all the way.

Frontrunner: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Challengers: Jafar Panahi, It Was Just An Accident, Ryan Coogler, Sinners

Best Actress
Throughout this whole season, the one acting frontrunner that has remained in the minds of Oscar followers has been Jessie Buckley for Hamnet. Her performance lingers long after the film ends, and, even if the film doesn’t go all the way in Best Picture, Buckley could become the perfect consolation prize for the film overall.

However, most recently, the true challenger to Buckley has emerged in the form of Rose Byrne for Mary Bronstein’s If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You. Winning both LAFCA and NYFCC, plus NBR, it’s clear who the critics are pushing. Byrne’s work is remarkable and defines Bronstein’s stress-filled look at motherhood, but being a lone nominee in a film that is quite challenging to digest fully makes an Oscar win seem hard to consider at this moment, with just how strong Hamnet is in the Best Picture race.

Frontrunner: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Challenger: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You

Best Actor
For the whole season, so many have put their stock in Timotheé Chalamet for Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme to have his “Leonardo DiCaprio” moment and finally win as one of the few true Movie Stars left. With glowing reviews and a critically acclaimed performance, he might still pull it off.

However, with wins for the NBR and being a Best Picture frontrunner, one has to wonder if the true challenger to Chalamet really is Leonardo DiCaprio for One Battle After Another. Winning the Time Magazine Award for Entertainer of the Year and being a defining part of OBAA, it seems pretty logical that he could go all the way and win with his film. Though not as much of a “definitive lead” as Chalamet, DiCaprio is in the stronger film and very much has enough going for him to win in the end. Wagner Moura for Kleber Mendonça Filho’s The Secret Agent remains a threat if his film continues to rise in the Best Picture race as well.

Frontrunner: Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Challengers: Timotheé Chalamet, Marty Supreme, Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

Best Supporting Actress
Perhaps the most challenging race to call at the moment above the line (outside of the freshman category in Casting), Amy Madigan for Zach Cregger’s Weapons pulled off a win at NYFCC, and for this whole season, has been someone that critics and people in the industry have highlighted as a true force to be reckoned with.

However, right behind her with a LAFCA win is Teyana Taylor for One Battle After Another, and an NBR win for Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas for Trier’s Sentimental Value. One has to wait and see how the major televised awards respond to the film to gauge where this race is truly going.

Frontrunner: Amy Madigan, Weapons
Challengers: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value

Best Supporting Actor
Easily the most surprising category this season, what started as one of the hardest to analyze races has become a vessel for Benicio Del Toro for One Battle After Another. Winning NYFCC and NBR, in addition to other regional awards, one has to wonder if he is the OBAA supporting player who will win, as opposed to Sean Penn, whose role is more antagonistic.

Stellan Skarsgård for Sentimental Value is right behind Del Toro with a LAFCA win. If Sentimental Value does indeed remain a staple in the category, this could be a consolation prize for the film. Paul Mescal for Hamnet is also possible if the film makes a resurgence, but that remains to be seen.

Frontrunner: Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another
Challengers: Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value, Paul Mescal, Hamnet.

Best Original Screenplay
Very much dependent on how strong each film is individually, one could argue it’s down to three films. If there was to be a chosen frontrunner, it would be Ryan Coogler’s story for Sinners, and if the film is winning Best Picture, this would be a prelude to that, or it would be a consolation prize for the filmmaker if he isn’t taking picture or director.

Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt’s screenplay for Sentimental Value, in its emphasis on dialogue, would be a worthy choice, as would Jafar Panahi’s work for It Was Just An Accident.

Frontrunner: Sinners
Challengers: It Was Just An Accident, Sentimental Value

Best Adapted Screenplay
With two of the three frontrunners for Best Picture in this category, one could argue that the way in which that race plays out would be indicative of what prevails. Paul Thomas Anderson’s work in adapting Pynchon’s Vineland (albeit loosely) for One Battle After Another seems like the type to win here, given its snappy dialogue and Best Picture strength, but Chloé Zhao and Maggie O’Farrell’s work in adapting Hamnet might give it an edge at USC Scripter and Bafta, creating a real race.

Frontrunner: One Battle After Another
Challenger: Hamnet

Best Casting

The toughest category to read because of how new it is, the best line of thinking is to go with what you think is winning Best Picture. One Battle After Another could wind up with as much as five acting nominations, and to Casting Directors (and the whole academy) that might be too hard to deny, with Cassandra Kulukundis taking the inaugural trophy. However, Francine Maisler could also be recognized for her work in casting Sinners, and this might all depend on SAG ensemble.

Frontrunner: One Battle After Another
Challenger: Sinners

Oscar Predictions for Week of December 15

A few changes have been made, notably

• Leonardo DiCaprio is in the #1 spot for Best Actor over Timotheé Chalamet
• Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas in Supporting Actress over Elle Fanning
• Blue Moon back into Original Screenplay over Jay Kelly
• Frankenstein in Cinematography over Marty Supreme
• Frankenstein in Best Original Score over F1
• Mickey 17 in Best Visual Effects over Predator: Badlands
• The Tale of Silyan in a Documentary Feature on The Alabama Situation
• Sinners is the frontrunner in Cinematography over Hamnet
• It was last week, but Sentimental Value back into Casting over Jay Kelly (An oversight on my part)

The Shortlists released this week might offer some insight into certain categories, but it remains to be seen what makes it and what does not.

Best Picture
1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. Hamnet
4. Marty Supreme
5. It Was Just An Accident
6. Frankenstein
7. Sentimental Value
8. Bugonia
9. The Secret Agent
10. Train Dreams

Alts: Wicked: For Good, Jay Kelly, Weapons, Blue Moon, The Voice of Hind Rajab, No Other
Choice, The Testament of Ann Lee, Avatar: Fire and Ash

Best Director

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
2. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just An Accident
3. Ryan Coogler, Sinners
4. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
5. Guillermo Del Toro, Frankenstein

Alts: Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme,Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value

Best Actress

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
2. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
3. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
4. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another
5. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee

Alts: Emma Stone, Bugonia Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good, Kate Hudson,
Song Sung Blue

Best Actor

1. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
2. Timotheé Chalamet, Marty Supreme
3. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
4. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

Alts: Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams, Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me From
Nowhere, George Clooney, Jay Kelly

Best Supporting Actress

1. Amy Madigan, Weapons
2. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
3. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
4. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
5. Odessa A’zion, Marty Supreme

Alts: Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value, Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good, Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme

Best Supporting Actor

1. Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another
2. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
3. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
4. Paul Mescal, Hamnet
5. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly

Alt: Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein

Best Original Screenplay

1. Sinners
2. It Was Just An Accident
3. Sentimental Value
4. Marty Supreme
5. Blue Moon

Alts: Jay Kelly, Weapons, The Secret Agent

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. One Battle After Another
2. Hamnet
3. Train Dreams
4. Bugonia
5. No Other Choice

Alts: Frankenstein, Wake Up Dead Man

Casting

1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. Hamnet
4. Marty Supreme
5. Sentimental Value

Alts: Jay Kelly, Weapons, Wake Up Dead Man

Best International Feature

1. It Was Just An Accident
2. Sentimental Value
3. No Other Choice
4. The Secret Agent
5. The Voice of Hind Rajab

(Alts: Left-Handed Girl, Sirât, The President’s Cake)

Best Documentary Feature

1. The Perfect Neighbor
2. 2000 Meters to Andriivka
3. Mr. Nobody Against Putin
4. Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk
5. The Tale of Silyan

(Alts: The Alabama Solution, Seeds or Cutting Through Rocks)

Best Animated Feature

1. Kpop Demon Hunters
2. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
3. Zootopia 2
4. Arco
5. Elio

(Alts: Scarlet and A Magnificent Life)

Best Cinematography

1. Sinners
2. Hamnet
3. One Battle After Another
4. Train Dreams
5. Frankenstein

Best Editing

1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. Marty Supreme
4. Hamnet
5. It Was Just An Accident

Best Production Design

1. Frankenstein
2. Wicked: For Good
3. Avatar: Fire and Ash
4. Hamnet
5. Sinners

Best Costume Design

1. Frankenstein
2. Wicked: For Good
3. Sinners
4. Hamnet
5. The Testament of Ann Lee

Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Frankenstein
2. Wicked: For Good
3. The Smashing Machine
4. Weapons
5. Sinners

Best Sound

1. Sinners
2. F1
3. One Battle After Another
4. Avatar: Fire and Ash
5. Frankenstein

Best Visual Effects

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
2. Superman
3. F1
4. Frankenstein
5. Mickey 17

Best Score

1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. Marty Supreme
4. Hamnet
5. The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Song

1. Golden from KPop Demon Hunters
2. I Lied to You from Sinners
3. The Girl In The Bubble from Wicked: For Good
4. Dear Me from Diane Warren Relentless
5. Clothed By The Sun from: The Testament of Ann Lee

If you want to follow me on Twitter (x), the link is here

If you want to follow me on Letterboxd, the link is here

I’m also on the Awards Expert app, you can find me there.

-----------------------

By: Scott Kernen
Title: Nextgen Oscarwatcher: Taking the Temperature of the Above the Line Categories
Sourced From: www.awardsdaily.com/2025/12/15/nextgen-oscarwatcher-taking-the-temperature-of-the-above-the-line-categories/
Published Date: Mon, 15 Dec 2025 19:15:01 +0000