Picking the right five in each of the short categories is the hardest part of Oscar predicting, especially this year when the Oscars, but for a choice here or there, feel fairly predictable. What I have found is that watching them doesn’t really make much of a difference, because we are talking about a consensus vote, not any one person’s individual taste. Here are the rules:
For Live Action Short films, all active members are allowed to vote on both the shortlists and the final for nominations, with the only requirement being they watched all of them. So these are active and enthusiastic voters who will not be phoning it in.
For the Documentary, they are restricted to their respective branches, with the requirement that they’ve seen all the films on the shortlist.
For animation, those in the branch make the shortlist and after that, ” To determine nominations, all active and life members of the Academy will be invited to view the fifteen shortlisted Animated Short Films. A member must watch all shortlisted films to vote in the Nominations round. Members shall vote by secret ballot in the order of their preference for not more than five motion pictures. The five motion pictures receiving the highest number of votes shall become the nominations for final voting for the Animated Short Film award.”
What it means is that those invested in a particular film will be sure to vote, like if they know a person involved or if the subject matter is important (abortion, climate change). But that makes it harder to read their minds as to which films they will like best.
Things to look for in each short film: who is connected? How much money was spent? What prizes has it won? Those things can sometimes determine a film’s potential nomination.
I found a few sites that run down the shorts and rank them. But again, this is just a matter of taste. In the case of Films Fatale, Andreas Babiolakis seems fairly typical of an Academy member, at least to me. He would be considered “progressive” but not overtly “woke.” His list ranking the shorts is helpful because he goes through each one, highlighting its strengths and weaknesses. So definitely read that.
And here we have A Voters Guide on Short of the Week, with links to viewable films and more information about them. So for Animated, the ones that stand out for me (some I have seen), would be:
Snow Bear – heartwarming with a “climate change” message.
Retirement Plan (seems like a no-brainer to me. I also really liked it).
Playing God (impressive, though I didn’t exactly enjoy it).
The Girl Who Cried Pearls – lovely.
The Quinta’s Ghost – looks impressive, though I did not see it.
The Three Sisters – kind of cute and funny about women competing for an oafish man.
Butterfly – about racism and antisemitism
Forevergreen – about a little bear that is adopted by a tree.
And the rest, you can read the summaries on Films Fatale.
Autokar
Cardboard
Éiru
Hurikán
I Died in Irpin
The Night Boots
The Shyness of Trees
At Awards Expert, the going predictions are – the check marks are mine:
Documentary Short is chosen by the branch, which is why it, like Doc Feature, is sometimes harder to predict than when it’s open to the entire Academy. Still, as with all things Hollywood, you know that they care about politics more than anything and rarely choose films that do not reflect that ideology or offer any kind of universal storytelling. Sometimes it’s unavoidable, but in general, these are weapons to be used against the Trump administration and the Republicans. Not all, of course.
All the Empty Rooms – about victims of school shootings.
Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud – Ukraine themed
Cashing Out – the AIDS crisis
The Devil is Busy – abortion
All the Alls Came Down – about the fires in Los Angeles
Rovina’s Choice – cuts to USAID and its effects
Perfectly a Strangeness – follows some donkeys around (be still my beating heart)
Heartbeat – a candid look at a relationship
Last Days on Lake Trinity – about the owner of a trailer park kicking out its residents.
Classroom 4 – Criminal Justice in America
We Were the Scenery – about the extras on Apocalypse Now
On Healing Land, Birds Perch – the story of an iconic photo of the Vietnam war
Children No More and We Are Gone – Israelis mourning the death of victims in the war in Gaza
Bad Hostage — true crime done in a unique way that Films Fatale really liked.
So you can more or less figure where the juice is for these — politics of the Left, but for a couple of them, like Bad Hostage.
Live Action Short – by far, the hardest to predict because you just have no idea who will be voting on these and why. I expect some of these filmmakers have support in the Academy and can block-vote the contenders in. You have to just do the best you can. In general, American filmmakers don’t do as well as international filmmakers largely due to the crisis of storytelling that has crippled all culture, but especially filmmaking. It’s all dogma and driving THE MESSAGE, perhaps, but telling ordinary stories about ordinary life is hard for Americans right now.
Ado – school shooting again
Beyond Silence, sexual assault mixed with disability.
The Boy With White Skin, race relations of a kind
Rock, Paper, Scissors – Ukraine
Two People Exchanging Saliva – dystopian future where people can’t kiss, I assume an LGBTQIA love story, which Films Fatale ranks at number one.
Amarela – a story about racism
Butcher’s Stain – Israel/Palestine relations, war in Gaza
And the rest, which you can read the summary over at Films Fatale.
Butterfly on a Wheel
Dad’s Not Home
Extremist
A Friend of Dorothy
Jane Austen’s Period Drama
Pantyhose
The Pearl Comb
The Singers
Here is how they are ranked on the Awards App – checkmarks mine.
I will include the shorts in my predictions column posting tomorrow. Stay tuned.
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By: Sasha Stone
Title: 2026 Oscar Predictions: Predicting The Pesky Shorts
Sourced From: www.awardsdaily.com/2026/01/20/2026-oscar-predictions-predicting-the-pesky-shorts/
Published Date: Tue, 20 Jan 2026 19:31:21 +0000
