Back in the old days, when the Oscars were held in March, the most influential festival was the Toronto Film Festival. No one thought about Cannes, not even when No Country for Old Men screened there and then won Best Picture. The Artist would be another who followed the same path. These are films that would have won no matter what.
After the date for the Oscars was pushed back from March to late February, the more influential festivals became Telluride and Venice. But the Academy’s demographics have changed dramatically over the past five years, bringing in thousands of new voters, most of them international, that Telluride and Toronto have dimmed slightly in terms of influence. They can still drive through at least one contender, but for whatever reason, the spotlight has shifted overseas, to Cannes and Venice.
Now that we’ve had two Best Picture winners that also won the Palme d’Or, not to mention four films nominated for Best Picture in the past two years that played in Cannes, it seems there has been a seismic shift in the importance of Cannes. More is at play besides the international voters and bloggers attending the festivals.
My guess is that artistic daring might flourish there where it might not in other place. They are “woke” to an extent, meaning they will still give all three Best Actress prizes to Emilia Perez (instead of one to Demi Moore or Mikey Madison). They still will showcase female directors just to balance things out. But there is artistic daring that you do not see anymore in the American film market, and that is what must be addressed, confronted, and challenged.
Hollywood is under a thick layer of oppressive fear that has, I think, stifled their ability to tell good stories. They are so worried about offending anyone that it has led to bland filmmaking. That doesn’t seem to be the case in other countries that aren’t, at least as of now, under that kind of oppressive thinking — and if they are, they write about it.
Today’s film in Cannes, Ari Aster’s Eddington, sounds promising and challenging in that it apparently dives into 2020 and the madness that ensued. It is a subjust so rich for storytelling yet there are so few people daring enough to tell those stories. And what a shame that is.
What surprises me is that anyone in the industry would, in any way, be willing to critically examine the Left and everything that happened that insane year, put it in a movie—a western, no less—and have that movie made and released in theaters.
The review to read is probably David Ehrlich’s at Indiewire, though I think it has too many spoilers. I don’t usually care about that, but you don’t necessarily want to know everything before seeing a movie. Either way, he seems to GROK the movie better than some, I’d say, not that I’d know. He is, at least, looking at the broader themes at play and how it might at least start a conversation about everything we lived through. I hope so.
I have been waiting for anyone to do what Rod Serling did in the 1950s and look critically at the mania that has overtaken so much of our country. Eddington looks to be maybe the start of that.
So why is Cannes suddenly such a hotbed of influence? Probably because so many people come from all over the world and compete for such a small slate of movies on offer. What I remember about Cannes, hilariously, back when I attended, was that the last thing they cared about was the Oscars. Over here, that is a calling card of sorts because everyone wants to get nominated, but in Cannes, at least back in the day, that wasn’t the goal.
So perhaps that’s part of the reason: sheer boredom with what’s on offer here and excitement with whatever they have coming over there. We need a new culture, a renaissance. I hope we get one. Ari Aster might be leading the way. Who knows.
Let’s take a look at where films came from:
2024
Cannes-Anora
Cannes-Emilia Perez
Cannes-The Substance
Telluride-Conclave
Telluride-Nickel Boys
Venice-I’m Still Here
Venice-The Brutalist
Wide release-Wicked
Wide release-Dune Part II
Wide release-A Complete Unknown
2023
Cannes-Anatomy of a Fall
Cannes-Killers of the Flower Moon
Cannes-The Zone of Interest
Sundance-Past Lives
Telluride-The Holdovers
Toronto-American Fiction
Venice-Poor Things
Venice-Maestro
Wide release-Oppenheimer
Wide release-Barbie
2022
Cannes-Elvis
Cannes-Triangle of Sadness
SXSW-Everything Everywhere All At Once
Telluride-Women Talking
Toronto-All Quiet on the Western Front
Toronto-The Fabelmans
Venice-The Banshees of Inisherin
Venice-TAR
Wide Release-Top Gun Maverick
2021
Cannes-Drive My Car
New York Film Festival-Don’t Look Up
New York Film Festival-Nightmare Alley
Sundance-CODA
Telluride-Belfast
Telluride-King Richard
Venice-The Power of the Dog
Wide release-Dune
Wide release-Licorice Pizza
Wide release-Westside Story
2020
Sundance-The Father
Sundance-Judas and the Black Messiah
Sundance-Minari
Sundance-Promising Young Woman
Toronto-Sound of Metal
Venice-Nomadland
Netflix-Mank
Netflix-The Trial of the Chicago 7
2019
Cannes-Parasite
Cannes-Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
New York-The Irishman
Telluride-Ford v. Ferrari
Toronto-Jojo Rabbit
Venice-Joker
Venice-Marriage Story
Wide Release-Little Women
Wide Release-1917
2018
Cannes-BlackKklansman
Toronto-Green Book
Venice-ROMA
Venice-The Favourite
Venice-A Star is Born
Wide Release-Black Panther
Wide Release-Bohemian Rhapsody
Wide Release-VICE
2017
Sundance-Get Out
Telluride-Darkest Hour
Telluride-Lady Bird
Venice-The Shape of Water
Venice-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Wide Release-Call Me By Your Name
Wide Release-Dunkirk
Wide Release-Phantom Thread
Wide Release-The Post
2016
Cannes-Hell or High Water
Sundance-Manchester by the Sea
Telluride-Moonlight
Toronto-Lion
Venice-Arrival
Venice-La La Land
Venice-Hacksaw Ridge
Wide Release-Fences
Wide Release-Hiden Figures
It isn’t that films didn’t show up at Cannes first. They did, but it was rare, much more so than it is right now and I think it must have something more at play than just the scheduling. I guess we’ll have to wait and see how this turns out.
But it is rare for a film to win the Oscar for wide release now. Oppenheimer did it. Perhaps Sinners will too. Let the people, rather than the bloggers and critics, decide.
By next week, we should have a better idea of how things shake out at Cannes.
As for my predictions, I have only made one or two changes. Now that I see Mark Johnson is on the Awards Expert app (follow me there! No one will cancel you for it, I promise) I thought I should probably add Bugonia to my predictions. Not sure why I hadn’t. I also have my eye on Spike Lee’s Highest 2 Lowest, which will show in Cannes.
Otherwise, I still feel Sinners is a cultural zeitgeist movie, though I notice Mark doesn’t even have it in his top ten. To quote Julia Roberts in Pretty Woman, BIG MISTAKE. HUGE.
Either way, this is what it is looking like:
And of course I realize Shis LaBeouf has not the greatest chance in the world of getting recognition, but he deserves it. Looking over this list, I feel hopeful. Maybe it won’t be such a bad year. By the way, Sinners is holding its place at the box office, cresting mid-200 mil and shows very little signs of slowing down, en route to cultural phenom territory. Go Ryan Coogler go.
Have a great weekend.
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By: Sasha Stone
Title: 2026 Oscar Predictions: How Much Influence Does Cannes Have?
Sourced From: www.awardsdaily.com/2025/05/16/2026-oscar-predictions-how-much-influence-does-cannes-have/
Published Date: Fri, 16 May 2025 20:21:13 +0000
