2026 Oscar Predictions: Can Divisive Movies Win Best Picture?

In my view, one of the biggest problems with the Oscars is that they use a preferential or ranked-choice ballot to decide the Best Picture winner. A divisive movie can win on a five-picture ballot more easily than on a preferential ballot. Where passion can decide the nomination, general likability often decides the win. Except when it doesn’t. If a movie is beloved enough to secure a win in the first round of voting, it won’t matter if it is divisive.

It should go without saying that some of the best films ever made are “divisive.” A consensus vote doesn’t necessarily equal a great movie that will stand the test of time. To date, if you say the names of most of the Best Picture winners of the past 15 years, most people would have no idea what they were and could not remember them. The people who do are usually those who consider themselves cinephiles.

Hollywood has been alienating audiences for years, but especially with its Oscar movies. It is a byproduct of the country’s division and the exclusionary nature of those who govern it. If you are someone who believes in the reversed hierarchy that puts marginalized groups at the top — elevating them — and normie whites at the bottom, you will be someone who exists in the bubble. Outside the bubble, people don’t see movies that way and don’t want to see them that way. So far, we don’t see any resistance within the industry or the Academy. So a movie being “woke” is an asset, not a detriment.

At any rate, what do we mean by ‘divisive’? There are two ways a movie can be divisive. If the film itself is a love-it/hate-it. If people love it, they really love it. If they hate it, they really hate it. These are often the most interesting, daring, challenging movies (like The Substance). They don’t do as well on a preferential ballot because they’re usually either number one or they’re much farther down the ballot.

To do well on a ranked-choice ballot, a film needs to be ranked number one (Argo, Parasite, Oppenheimer, Anora), or if not, number two, or if not, number three. It has to be pushed to the top of the ballot for one reason or another. Voters push films to the top of the ballot because they think they’re well-intentioned, or they want them to succeed, or they liked them, but just didn’t love them (Moonlight, Nomadland, CODA, etc). There always has to be a reason.

When a film doesn’t make the top of the ballot, it’s usually because voters don’t feel any desire or obligation to push it to the top. If you’ve ever run an experiment on this, you’ll find that a movie that does well will often hit everywhere with all groups. It is either universally liked or there is goodwill projected in its direction. Very rarely can a film win Best Picture if people drop it lower on their ballots.

A film will do poorly on a ranked choice ballot if the critics oversell the movie as the GREATEST FILM OF ALL TIME and the movie itself can’t live up to that. How we go into a movie often dictates our response. If I tell everyone that One Battle After Another is a masterpiece, the greatest film ever made, their expectations will be too high, and they will be disappointed. If I tell them it sucked, that it’s “woke” propaganda, then they might be pleasantly surprised that they don’t see it that way.

Love for this movie is twofold. It’s love for PTA and his legacy. No director I can think of is more beloved by the critics. But the passion for it is the misconception that this country is under a Nazi occupation and ruled by fascists, per this tweet and the comments that follow it. If you HATE the “everybody else” outside the bubble, this movie scratches that itch big time because it depicts them as white supremacists at best and Nazi fascists at worst:

But the truth is, fascism is the side that cancels people for a thought crime, aka “cancel culture.” It’s the side that demands conformity, or else. Fascism is a lot closer to what we saw in Hollywood post-2020. We joke that it was the “great awokening,” but it was uniform compliance and obedience to a specific ideology and worldview, one that is still present in nearly every movie Hollywood puts out. None of them are free from it because all mandated to comply. The biggest irony of it is that they accuse anyone who doesn’t go along with them of being a “fascist.”

In Hollywood, their worldview is largely defined by shared enemies: people who do not share their beliefs, namely, half the country. But that isn’t the Academy, at least as far as we can tell. They are very much true believers in the Woketopia that Hollywood has become, and they likely reflect the views of the individual mentioned above.

Even if they aren’t true believers who are uplifted by and euphoric about the film’s worldview (“bad guys over there, good guys over here”), being part of the group feels good. Therefore, if everyone is on board with One Battle, most people won’t want to be part of the outgroup and will simply join the consensus. It happens every year. It’s also risky to go against the group, especially in this case, but in most cases. No one wants to be called a “racist” or a “sexist,” etc.

Sometimes the movie itself becomes the darling of the season, like The Artist, like The King’s Speech, like Argo. It catches fire, and nothing can slow it down, not even complaints from people like me who thought other movies should have won and hit these movies hard. I was for Hugo, The Social Network, and Lincoln. Made no difference. These were what I call “kicking puppy” movies, wherein attacks against them only further bolster support for them.

I think One Battle might qualify as a “kicking puppy” movie because of love for PTA and the film’s earnest social justice messaging, not to mention the abundance of non-white characters, which has become, for Hollywood, how they signal their virtue, as if to say, “see, we’re not all evil white racists. Some of us are willing to de-center ourselves from the narrative.” In the end, the power remains the same — the Chess pieces are moved around…

Dumping on this film is likely to backfire as it makes those who truly believe the Gestapo is here, and see the cops, the National Guard, ICE, and the military as “fascists,” which is why ICE officers are being targeted, attacked, and, in some cases, shot at.

No one in the trades or in Hollywood at all would dare talk about violence against ICE agents and this movie in the same breath. Once upon a time, they might have, with say, Joker or Django Unchained or Detroit — but not now. A page has been turned. If you remember nothing else, remember this: the fascist side is the side where people are afraid to say what they think, afraid not to conform, and afraid not to obey the rules.

Winning Best Picture is often about managing expectations and shaping perceptions. Some directors are so likable and clever that the entire industry falls in love with them during the Oscar race, like Danny Boyle and Slumdog Millionaire, Bong Joon-Ho and Parasite, and The Three Amigos (Inarittu, Del Toro, Cuaron), who dominated Best Director for nearly ten years and even Best Picture. Like The Daniels in Everything, Everywhere All At Once. PTA seems, to me, like he could fall into this thing – especially if he decides to actively campaign for the Oscar.

Divisive vs. Non-divisive

What’s notable is that every Best Picture winner except Green Book has a 90% or higher audience rating, yet Green Book is among the few that also have a 90% or higher audience rating, along with Spotlight, Parasite, and Oppenheimer. Sort of says it all. But we do tend to see a disconnect between critics and audiences in general when it comes to Best Picture winners.

The most popular movie with critics and audiences that came close to winning Best Picture is Top Gun: Maverick. I haven’t looked up other nominees to see. I was mainly looking at those that were being talked about for Best Picture, or came close.

I don’t know how you can beat 99% with over 50,000 ratings, and it will always be shocking in retrospect that it didn’t win Best Picture. Don’t look at me. I tried. I pushed hard for this movie. The reason it didn’t win perfectly explains the disconnect between what Hollywood is now and what it used to be.

You know what comes close? Sinners.

So far, we don’t have much intel on any of the BP contenders now. We have One Battle just getting started.

So One Battle’s audience score will drift. Last time I checked, it had ticked up to 89%, so I’ll continue to monitor it as it rolls out, in relation to the real-world violence happening on the streets. Critics and journalists will not touch the hot topic of violence. However, I don’t think they should avoid such a prominent cultural moment. Either way, I’m unsure if this movie will be divisive or not. My guess is that it might become a critics’ darling, and another movie will win Best Picture. That movie might be Sinners in the Family or Hamnet.

Hamnet, in particular, is alluring because it offers an escape from politics, hate, and division. It is the story of Shakespeare’s wife, whose life is painful and difficult. But eventually, she comes to see the importance of and the value of art. That’s a universal message that might just resonate with voters.

I have not yet seen it, however, and neither have many other people. So we’ll wait and see. My inclination is to declare One Battle potentially too divisive to win. I’ll set it aside for now but if it catches a wave and it can’t be slowed down, I’ll join the herd. At the moment, I still think Sinners is the better movie by a long way so it’s harder for me to see how this land. I’ll settle with Hamnet for the time being as the feel-good-ish movie that takes voters out of the complications of modern day and tells a universal story.

Best Picture

1. Hamnet
2. Sinners
3. One Battle After Another
4. Sentimental Value
5. Wicked: For Good
6. Weapons
7. Frankenstein
8. The Smashing Machine
9. Bugonia
10. A House of Dynamite
11. It Was Just an Accident
12. Jay Kelly
13. Avatar: Fire and Ash
14. Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
15. Marty Supreme

Best Director

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners
3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
4. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
5. Guillermo Del Toro, Frankenstein

Best Actor

1. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine
2. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
4. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

Best Actress

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
2. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good
3. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
4. Emma Stone, Bugonia
5. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Supporting Actor

1. Paul Mescal, Hamnet
2. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
3. Delroy Lindo, Sinners
4. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
5. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

Supporting Actress

1. Amy Madigan, Weapons
2. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Vallue
3. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
4. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt
5. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

Original Screenplay

1. Sinners
2. Sentimental Value
3. Weapons
4. House of Dynamite
5. Bugonia

Adapted Screenplay

1. Hamnet
2. One Battle After Another
3. The Life of Chuck
4. Bugonia
5. Wicked: For Good

Casting

1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. Wicked: For Good
4. Hamnet
5. Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

International Feature

1. No Other Choice
2. Sentimental Value
3. The Voice of Hind Rajab
4. Sirāt
5. The Secret Agent

Cinematography

1. One Battle After Another
2. Hamnet
3. Sinners
4. Avatar: Fire and Ash
5. Frankenstein

Editing

1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. F1
4. Marty Supreme
5. The Smashing Machine

Production Design

1. Sinners
2. Avatar Fire and Ash
3. Frankenstein
4. Wicked: For Good
5. Hamnet

Makeup and Hairstyling

1. The Smashing Machine
2. Christy
3. Frankenstein
4. Wicked: For Good
5. Sinners

Visual Effects

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
2. Frankenstein
3. Superman
4. Wicked: For Good
5. F1

Sound

1. Sinners
2. Avatar: Fire and Ash
3. F1
4. Wicked: For Good
5. Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

That’s all, folks. Have a great weekend.

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By: Sasha Stone
Title: 2026 Oscar Predictions: Can Divisive Movies Win Best Picture?
Sourced From: www.awardsdaily.com/2025/09/26/2026-oscar-predictions-can-divisive-movies-win-best-picture/
Published Date: Fri, 26 Sep 2025 20:59:21 +0000