Nextgen Oscarwatcher: With BAFTA Over, What Lies Ahead?

Well the BAFTAs were fairly unpredictable (though in some categories more than others). Following a few weeks of hardly any precursors, the British Academy finally unveiled its winners for the 2025 Oscar season, and it’s quite revealing about the state of the Best Picture race, what is strong, what could be weak, what could surprise, and what is solidified. Let’s dig into the major details

One Win After Another for One Battle

Winning six Baftas, including the trio of Picture, Director, and Adapted Screenplay, Paul Thomas Anderson’s audacious film seems unstoppable at this point in the season. As some have said, it isn’t simply what the film might win, it’s how many it WILL win come this March 15^th. In addition to its unbreakable trio, the film also won Supporting Actor for Sean Penn (his first BAFTA), as well as editing and cinematography. Having prevailed over F1 in editing (a racing movie, one might add), it seems destined to win ACE, and then the Oscar. Cinematography comes down to ASC, and if it wins there, the film’s chances of going all the way and winning both major tech awards get stronger by the day. We await the PGA, SAG, and the remaining guilds to see if this love is translated elsewhere.

Sinners Overperforms

Given BAFTA’s reputation, many (myself included) believed Ryan Coogler’s original horror film would have difficulty winning many awards. Nevertheless, the film took home three BAFTAS, including Original Score, Original Screenplay for Coogler, and perhaps most surprisingly, Supporting Actress for Wunmi Mosaku. Though some will point towards her connection towards BAFTA (having won previously for TV work as a reasoning for why some predicted her) it’s a big sign of strength for the film, and a sign that like One Battle After Another, Sinners is strong with the industry. We also await SAG and PGA for what will be solidified.

Some Categories set in stone

If there is one thing the BAFTA Awards always seem to do, it’s solidify races one might look at initially as competitive, such as

• Paul Thomas Anderson in Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay
• Jessie Buckley in Best Actress
• One Battle After Another in editing (though F1 took CCA, this race seems over, considering the precedent
• Ryan Coogler for Original Screenplay
• Sinners in Original Score
• Frankenstein in Makeup, Costume Design, and Production Design
• F1 in Sound
• Avatar Fire and Ash in Visual Effects

Categories that are considered to be wide open (or at the very least, open for conversation) are

• Best Picture: One Battle After Another vs Sinners
• Best Actor: Though Chalamet lost to the ineligible Robert Aramayo, SAG might not be a guarantee
• The Supporting Acting categories
• Cinematography
• Documentary Feature: PGA might decide between The Perfect Neighbor and Nobody Against Putin
• International Feature: Sentimental Value vs The Secret Agent

Among possibly a few others

The BAFTA Awards are often a significant precursor, but sometimes they aren’t the be all/end all for predictions.

PGA Preview

Daryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures

• Bugonia
• F1
• Frankenstein
• Hamnet
• Marty Supreme
• One Battle After Another
• Sentimental Value
• Sinners
• Train Dreams
• Weapons

Though the financial profit of Sinners towers over One Battle After Another, the latter has shown no weakness, and though there remains the chance of Coogler’s film prevailing with Producers, it seems best not to go against the consensus, with PTA’s audacious epic likely winning here and the Oscar.

Prediction: One Battle After Another

Challenger: Sinners

 Outstanding Producer of Documentary Theatrical Motion Pictures

• The Alabama Solution
• Cover-Up
• Mr Nobody Against Putin
• My Mom Jayne
• Ocean with David Attenborough
• The Perfect Neighbor
• The Tale of Silyan

 Prediction: The Perfect Neighbor
Challenger: Mr Nobody Against Putin

 Outstanding Producer of Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures

• The Bad Guys 2
• Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle
• Elio
• KPop Demon Hunters
• Zootopia 2

Prediction: KPop Demon Hunters
Challenger: Zootopia 2

(SAG) Actor Award Predictions

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

• Frankenstein
• Hamnet
• Marty Supreme
• One Battle After Another
• Sinners

This race is really close between Ryan Coogler’s Sinners and Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another. The latter has a record number of nominations, the former clearly a film that feels more in line with the types of ensemble that are recognized (bigger quantity, more diverse, reflective of AFTRA).

If One Battle After Another is unstoppable, it will prevail here too in addition to DGA and its possible PGA win, however, SAG might be the place to give Sinners an award to recognize its casting (and a prelude to its possible Oscar win in Casting)

Prediction: Sinners
Challenger: One Battle After Another

 Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

• Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
• Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
• Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
• Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
• Jesse Plemons, Bugonia

Despite losing BAFTA, there just isn’t a compelling argument for anyone besides Chalamet unless the film is just losing everything single nomination it has. The two biggest challengers are that of DiCaprio, and Jordan to an extent, but it feels safe to stick with Marty Supreme taking this.

Prediction: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Challenger: Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another or Michael B. Jordan, SinnersOutstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role

• Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
• Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
• Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue
• Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another
• Emma Stone, Bugonia

After Chalamet had lost BAFTA, Buckley is the only possible acting contender who could sweep the season, and how deserved it truly is. The challenger is in the presence of Rose Byrne or Kate Hudson, but those are probably long shots.

Prediction: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Challenger: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, or Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue

 Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

• Miles Caton, Sinners
• Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another
• Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
• Paul Mescal, Hamnet
• Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

Easily the hardest category to predict, what could have been a non-factor if it was likely of Skarsgård winning the Oscar, is now a very indicative and tough one to call. After having won the BAFTA, many will think Penn has the edge here, having won the CCA and giving a more likable, empathetic performance, many would cling to Jacob Elordi as the possible winner, and both are highly plausible, we also have to consider Benicio Del Toro’s heroic turn in One Battle After Another as a possible winner here, considering how heroic the character is. Nevertheless, with the BAFTA win, it might be Sean Penn, and he might be the smart pick here.

Prediction: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Challenger: Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein or Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another

 Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

•  Odessa A’zion, Marty Supreme
• Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
• Amy Madigan, Weapons
• Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
• Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

Another category that feels wide open, it seems as if it is down to three contenders in Taylor (globe winner), Madigan (CCA winner), and Mosaku (BAFTA winner).

Each has their own strengths, Taylor clearly has the most likability of film, Mosaku probably has the most likability of role, and Madigan has the most likability of star. If I had to guess, Teyana Taylor would be my prediction at the moment, but the race feels fairly competitive.

Prediction: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Challenger: Amy Madigan, Weapons, or Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners

 Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture

• F1
• Frankenstein
• Mission Impossible – The Final Reckoning
• One Battle After Another
• Sinners

Prediction: Mission Impossible – The Final Reckoning
Challenger: Any of the Four

Oscar Predictions for This Week

 Not a ton of changes since a few weeks ago, though uncertainty remains

Best Picture

1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. Hamnet
4. Marty Supreme
5. Sentimental Value
6. Frankenstein
7. Bugonia
8. Train Dreams
9. The Secret Agent
10.  F1

Best Director

1. Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another
2. Ryan Coogler – Sinners
3. Chloé Zhao – Hamnet
4. Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value
5. Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme

Best Actress

1. Jessie Buckley – Hamnet
2. Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
3. Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value
4. Kate Hudson – Song Sung Blue
5. Emma Stone – Bugonia

Best Actor

1. Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme
2. Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another
3. Michael B. Jordan – Sinners
4. Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent
5. Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon

Best Supporting Actress

1. Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another
2. Wunmi Mosaku – Sinners
3. Amy Madigan – Weapons
4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas – Sentimental Value
5. Elle Fanning – Sentimental Value

Best Supporting Actor

1. Sean Penn – One Battle After Another
2. Benicio Del Toro – One Battle After Another
3. Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value
4. Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein
5. Delroy Lindo – Sinners

Best Original Screenplay

1. Sinners
2. Sentimental Value
3. Marty Supreme
4. It Was Just An Accident
5. Blue Moon

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. One Battle After Another
2. Hamnet
3. Train Dreams
4. Bugonia
5. Frankenstein

Casting

1. Sinners
2. One Battle After Another
3. Hamnet
4. Marty Supreme
5. The Secret Agent

Best International Feature

1. Sentimental Value
2. The Secret Agent
3. It Was Just An Accident
4. Sirât
5. The Voice of Hind Rajab

Best Documentary Feature

1. The Perfect Neighbor
2. Mr. Nobody Against Putin
3. The Alabama Solution
4. Come See Me In The Good Light
5. Cutting Through Rocks

Best Animated Feature

1. Kpop Demon Hunters
2. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
3. Zootopia 2
4. Arco
5. Elio

Best Cinematography

1. Sinners
2. One Battle After Another
3. Train Dreams
4. Frankenstein
5. Marty Supreme

Best Editing

1. One Battle After Another
2. F1
3. Sinners
4. Marty Supreme
5. Sentimental Value

Best Production Design

1. Frankenstein
2. One Battle After Another
3. Hamnet
4. Sinners
5. Marty Supreme

Best Costume Design

1. Frankenstein
2. Sinners
3. Marty Supreme
4. Hamnet
5. Avatar: Fire and Ash

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Frankenstein
2. Sinners
3. The Smashing Machine
4. Kokuho
5. The Ugly Stepsisters

Best Sound

1. F1
2. Sinners
3. One Battle After Another
4. Frankenstein
5. Sirât

Best Visual Effects

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
2. F1
3. Sinners
4. The Lost Bus
5. Jurassic World: Rebirth

Best Original Score

1. Sinners
2. One Battle After Another
3. Hamnet
4. Bugonia
5. Frankenstein

Best Original Song

1. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters
2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners
3. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless
4. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams
5. “Sweet Dreams of Joy” from Viva Verdi!

Best Documentary Short

1. All the Empty Rooms
2. Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud
3. The Devil is Busy
4. Perfectly a Strangeness
5. Children No More: Were and Are Gone

Best Animated Short

1. Butterfly
2. The Girl Who Cried Pearls
3. Forevergreen
4. Retirement Plan
5. The Three Sisters

Best Live Action Short

1. Two People Exchanging Saliva
2. The Singers
3. A Friend of Dorothy
4. Butcher’s Stain
5. Jane Austen’s Period Drama

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By: Scott Kernen
Title: Nextgen Oscarwatcher: With BAFTA Over, What Lies Ahead?
Sourced From: www.awardsdaily.com/2026/02/23/nextgen-oscarwatcher-with-bafta-over-what-lies-ahead/
Published Date: Mon, 23 Feb 2026 18:44:39 +0000