Nextgen Oscarwatcher: Temperature Check on SAG ensemble

A slight diversion from the Major Oscar categories, let’s take a look at what awards followers are currently theorizing that the prestigious SAG Ensemble award has in store in terms of potential nominees and winners. Despite last year’s win for Edward Berger’s Conclave, it’s still very much a prelude to the Best Picture Oscar, and in most circumstances, getting the nomination is significant.

Best Ensemble (from the Awards Expert Community)

As expected, many believe Ryan Coogler’s Sinners (a whopping 73% of users) is the frontrunner to take this award. It makes sense, as this would be the second Ryan Coogler film (after 2018’s Black Panther) to take this award, highlighting the filmmaker’s ability to direct and express really strong work from a large cast of actors with different strengths and weaknesses. Seeing the cast of Sinners be honored for their work in the film would be incredibly rewarding. If Sinners were to pull a major guild sweep (this alongside PGA, DGA, and WGA), one could make an argument that the cast is one of the most well-liked parts of the film overall, making a win probable if it is going to go the distance.

Right behind Coogler’s film is Jon M. Chu’s Wicked: For Good. Having lost the previous ceremony to Conclave, there is a narrative that this could be an even stronger year for Chu’s franchise, the cap off to an adaptation not many thought was possible. In addition to SAG ensemble, there is a world where Cynthia Erivo and/or Ariana Grande pull off wins in their respective categories. Out of all the major contenders, Wicked: For Good feels the most secure here. Behind that is Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value, though there is an argument international features face a steeper hill with guild voters than those that are American, if the said film is going to potentially win Best Picture, a nomination here would be a strong sign of support that this would happen.

Noah Baumbach’s Jay Kelly and Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme round out the top five, with both movies really sticking out for how “palpable their casts feel,” especially for the former. Though there is always the chance for something to miss, these two feel primed for a slot here unless the projects turn out to be divisive or underseen by the time voting closes.

Behind these are Hikari’s Rental Family, Guadagnino’s After the Hunt, PTA’s One Battle After Another, Rian Johnson’s Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, and Scott Cooper’s Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere. A strong set of contenders if I were to suggest.

For the sake of it, here are my predictions for SAG Ensemble at the moment.

1. Sinners
2. Wicked: For Good
3. Jay Kelly
4. Marty Supreme
5. After the Hunt

Best Casting (From the Awards Expert App)

Akin to SAG Ensemble, this too is a race between Coogler’s Sinners and Chu’s Wicked: For Good. What is so difficult to project about Casting, as it is a new category, is whether there are certain criteria behind what is going to be nominated, or if it’s just going to be all Best Picture nominees, and not much else to it. Even after this year, it’s going to be tough to find patterns or correlations until a few seasons have passed.

In addition to the top two, Trier’s Sentimental Value, Safdie’s Marty Supreme, and Johnson’s Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery round out the top five. It makes sense, a combination of both potentially strong Best Picture nominees, and one that is very much a part of a franchise known for its “Casting.”

Cooper’s Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere, Hikari’s Rental Family, PTA’s One Battle After Another, Baumbach’s Jay Kelly, and Guadagnino’s After the Hunt round out the top 10.

If I had to say what the top five are in MY opinion, it would be as follows

1. Sinners
2. Marty Supreme
3. Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
4. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
5. Rental Family

A 2/5 correlation with SAG feels off, but I have to imagine there is a difference between thousands of voters choosing nominees for acting, and a small group of casting directors for casting. Just food for thought.

Oscar Predictions

Not so much has changed this week, but, with the “quiet announcement” of Lanthimos’s Bugonia being a Telluride screening (with the Venice schedule being partially leaked here) I inserted it in over After the Hunt. I also put Rental Family into casting because it really feels like the type of film to do well with these awards regarding the category (as small indies often are).

Best Picture

1. Sinners
2. Sentimental Value
3. Jay Kelly
4. Marty Supreme
5. Wicked for Good
6. The Testament of Ann Lee
7. Rental Family
8. One Battle After Another
9. It Was Just an Accident
10.  Bugonia

Best Director

1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners
2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
4. Mona Fastvold, The Testament of Ann Lee
5. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly

Best Actress

1. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee
2. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good
3. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt
4. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
5. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

Best Actor

1. Timothee Chalamet, Marty Supreme
2. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
3. George Clooney, Jay Kelly

1. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family

1. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

Best Supporting Actress

1. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family
2. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme
3. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
4. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
5. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly

Best Supporting Actor

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
2. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
3. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
4. Andrew Garfield, After The Hunt
5. Delroy Lindo, Sinners

Best Original Screenplay

1. Jay Kelly
2. Sentimental Value
3. Sinners
4. Rental Family
5. Marty Supreme

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. One Battle After Another
2. Bugonia
3. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
4. Hamnet
5. Train Dreams

Best Casting

1. Sinners
2. Marty Supreme
3. Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
4. Wake Up Dead Man
5. Rental Family

Best Cinematography

1. The Testament of Ann Lee
2. Frankenstein
3. Marty Supreme
4. Sinners
5. Jay Kelly

Best Editing

1. Marty Supreme
2. Sinners
3. Sentimental Value
4. One Battle After Another
5. Wicked: For Good

Best Production Design

1. Wicked: For Good
2. Frankenstein
3. Ann Lee
4. Avatar: Fire and Ash
5. Sinners

Best Costume Design

1. Wicked: For Good
2. Frankenstein
3. Ann Lee
4. Sinners
5. Marty Supreme

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Frankenstein
2. Wicked: For Good
3. The Smashing Machine
4. Sinners
5. 28 Years Later

Best Visual Effects

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
2. Superman
3. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
4. The Fantastic Four: First Steps
5. Wicked: For Good

Best Sound

1. F1
2. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
3. Sinners
4. Avatar: Fire and Ash
5. Wicked: For Good

Best Score

1. Sinners
2. Ann Lee
3. Frankenstein
4. Jay Kelly
5. One Battle After Another

Best Original Song

1. Wicked: For Good (Cynthia Erivo)
2. Ann Lee
3. Dear Me  (Diane Warren Biopic)
4. Wicked Song #2 (Ariana Grande)
5. I Lied To You from Sinners

Best International Feature

1. Sentimental Value
2. The Secret Agent
3. Sound Of Falling
4. No Other Choice
5. It Was Just an Accident (though if it is not submitted, considering the director’s relationship with the country, and no one picks it up, I would go with All That’s Left of You)

Best Animated Feature

1. A Magnificent Life
2. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
3. Arco
4. Zootopia 2
5. Scarlet

Best Documentary Feature

1. The Perfect Neighbor
2. Mr. Nobody Against Putin
3. Cutting Through Rocks
4. Seeds
5. 2000 Meters to Andriivka

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By: Scott Kernen
Title: Nextgen Oscarwatcher: Temperature Check on SAG ensemble
Sourced From: www.awardsdaily.com/2025/08/04/nextgen-oscarwatcher-temperature-check-on-sag-ensemble/
Published Date: Mon, 04 Aug 2025 16:21:56 +0000