Nextgen Oscarwatcher: Takeaways from the Critics Choice

Following the first major televised precursor of the year—the Critics Choice Awards—we finally have a robust set of winners that can be meaningfully correlated with potential AMPAS outcomes and Oscar predictions.

For the most part, clear favorites prevailed, but there were still a few noticeable surprises and key observations that could shape what happens down the road.

One Battle After Another, Sinners, F1, and Weapons Continue to Shine

If there’s one big winner from last night, it’s undoubtedly Warner Bros., which collected a total of ten Critics Choice Awards, including Picture, Director, both Screenplay prizes, Supporting Actress, Editing, Sound, and Score.
Though some expected a possible split in Picture or Director between Sinners or One Battle After Another, that didn’t happen, with PTA’s film reigning supreme.

Amy Madigan continued her strong critic support, winning here after her NYFCC victory. And though a televised award sweep remains tough to envision (given that she’s in a likely non-Best Picture-nominated movie), this underscores her genuine contender status—it’s not just a regional critics thing. An Oscar win just got a lot more likely.

A Major Shake-Up in Supporting Actor

Perhaps I was too dismissive on my end—Jacob Elordi always struck me as the kind of performance that racks up acclaim and honors but somehow misses out on precursors, either due to being a newer star or a genre role. Well, I have egg on my face now. Elordi not only won Critics Choice but defeated perceived frontrunners like Stellan Skarsgård, Benicio Del Toro, and Sean Penn.

He’s very much a solid bet for the supporting actor five. The question now is who he displaces, and with SAG announcements just days away, we’ll know fairly shortly.

The Secret Agent and Train Dreams Continue to Grow

If there are two films that can undoubtedly be called underdogs in the Best Picture nomination race, it’s Kleber Mendonça Filho’s The Secret Agent and Clint Bentley’s Train Dreams, which took home International Feature and Cinematography, respectively—both considered upsets in those categories.

Though there’s no voter overlap with the Academy, the genuine passion for both films is clearly real, and a Best Picture nod, especially in a field of ten, feels very plausible right now.

Some Guild Thoughts

Sasha published our collective predictions for SAG on Saturday (you can find them here), and while I stand by most of what I said, Jacob Elordi’s CCA win makes it feel pretty foolish to doubt him anymore—especially with how organic the passion truly is.

So, here are my updated SAG predictions: [Note: predictions would follow here in the original piece]

SAG Ensemble

• One Battle After Another
• Sinners
• Marty Supreme
• Hamnet
• Jay Kelly

SAG Best Actor

• Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
• Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
• Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
• Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
• Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine

SAG Best Actress

• Jesse Buckley, Hamnet
• Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
• Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another
• Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good
• Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue

SAG Best Supporting Actor

• Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another
• Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
• Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
• Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
• Paul Mescal, Hamnet

SAG Best Supporting Actress

• Amy Madigan, Weapons
• Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
• Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
• Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme
• Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine

Bonus: SAG Stunt

• Mission Impossible – The Final Reckoning
• F1
• Sinners
• One Battle After Another
• Superman

DGA Predictions

Occurring on the same day as SAG, here are my predictions for the two categories

DGA – Best Directed Feature

• Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
• Ryan Coogler, Sinners
• Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
• Guilermo Del Toro, Frankenstein
• Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme

Alts: Jafar Panahi for It Was Just An Accident or Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value

DGA – First Time Feature

• Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby
• Harris Dickinson, Urchin
• Harry Lighton, Pillion
• Charlie Polinger, The Plague
• Akinola Davies Jr, My Father’s Shadow

Alts: Mary Bronstein for If I Had Legs I’d Kick You or Kristen Stewart for The Chronology Of Water

PGA Predictions

Not changing much for PGA from Sasha’s piece, but here is my ten

• Sinners
• One Battle After Another
• Hamnet
• Marty Supreme
• Frankenstein
• Sentimental Value
• It Was Just An Accident
• Train Dreams
• F1
• Weapons

Alts: Wicked: For Good or Avatar: Fire and Ash

Oscar Predictions for this week

Not much has changed except for one thing

• Jacob Elordi is now in Supporting Actor for Frankenstein at the expense of Adam Sandler in Jay Kelly

Best Picture
1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. Hamnet
4. Marty Supreme
5. It Was Just An Accident
6. Frankenstein
7. Sentimental Value
8. The Secret Agent
9. Train Dreams
10. Bugonia

Alts: F1, Wicked: For Good, Jay Kelly, Weapons, Blue Moon, No Other
Choice, The Testament of Ann Lee, Avatar: Fire and Ash

Best Director

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
2. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just An Accident
3. Ryan Coogler, Sinners
4. Guillermo Del Toro, Frankenstein
5. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet

Alts: Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme, Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value

Best Actress

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
2. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
3. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
4. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another
5. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee

Alts: Emma Stone, Bugonia Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good, Kate Hudson,
Song Sung Blue

Best Actor

1. Timotheé Chalamet, Marty Supreme
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
3. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
4. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

Alt: Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams

Best Supporting Actress

1. Amy Madigan, Weapons
2. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
3. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
4. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
5. Odessa A’zion, Marty Supreme

Alts: Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value, Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good, Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme

Best Supporting Actor

1. Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another
2. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
3. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
4. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
5. Paul Mescal, Hamnet

Alt: Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly

Best Original Screenplay

1. Sinners
2. It Was Just An Accident
3. Sentimental Value
4. Marty Supreme
5. Sorry, Baby

Alts Weapons, The Secret Agent, Jay Kelly

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. One Battle After Another
2. Hamnet
3. Train Dreams
4. Bugonia
5. Frankenstein

Alts: No Other Choice, Wake Up Dead Man

Casting

1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. Hamnet
4. Marty Supreme
5. Weapons

Alts: Sentimental Value, The Secret Agent

Best International Feature

1. It Was Just An Accident
2. Sentimental Value
3. The Secret Agent
4. No Other Choice
5. Sirǎt

(Alts: The Voice of Hind Rajab, Left-Handed Girl, The President’s Cake)

Best Documentary Feature

1. The Perfect Neighbor
2. 2000 Meters to Andriivka
3. Mr. Nobody Against Putin
4. Come See Me In The Good Light
5. Cover-Up

(Alts: The Alabama Solution, Seeds or Cutting Through Rocks)

Best Animated Feature

1. Kpop Demon Hunters
2. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
3. Zootopia 2
4. Arco
5. Elio

(Alts: Scarlet and A Magnificent Life)

Best Cinematography

1. Sinners
2. One Battle After Another
3. Train Dreams
4. Hamnet
5. Frankenstein

Best Editing

1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. Marty Supreme
4. F1
5. It Was Just An Accident

Best Production Design

1. Frankenstein
2. Wicked: For Good
3. Hamnet
4. Sinners
5. Marty Supreme

Best Costume Design

1. Frankenstein
2. Wicked: For Good
3. Sinners
4. Hamnet
5. Hedda

Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Frankenstein
2. Wicked: For Good
3. The Smashing Machine
4. Sinners
5. One Battle After Another

Best Sound

1. Sinners
2. F1
3. One Battle After Another
4. Avatar: Fire and Ash
5. Frankenstein

Best Visual Effects

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
2. Superman
3. F1
4. Frankenstein
5. Sinners

Best Score

1. Sinners
2. One Battle After Another
3. Marty Supreme
4. Hamnet
5. F1

Best Song

1. Golden from KPop Demon Hunters
2. I Lied to You from Sinners
3. The Girl In The Bubble from Wicked: For Good
4. Dear Me from Diane Warren Relentless
5. Train Dreams from Train Dreams

Best Documentary Short

1. All the Empty Rooms
2. Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud
3. Bad Hostage
4. The Devil is Busy
5. Children No More: Were and Are Gone

Best Animated Short

1. Snow Bear
2. Autokar
3. Butterfly
4. The Girl Who Cried Pearls
5. Forevergreen

Best Live Action Short

1. Ado
2. Beyond Silence
3. The Boy with White Skin
4. Butcher’s Stain
5. Butterfly on a Wheel

Be on the lookout for our Golden Globe Predictions this week.

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By: Scott Kernen
Title: Nextgen Oscarwatcher: Takeaways from the Critics Choice
Sourced From: www.awardsdaily.com/2026/01/05/nextgen-oscarwatcher-takeaways-from-the-critics-choice/
Published Date: Mon, 05 Jan 2026 19:14:53 +0000