As we enter the second phase of Awards Season, which consists of precursors that are tailored by critics, both domestic and foreign, it’s important to look at each and every one, what could be meant by what is ultimately nominated, and what one can infer from each.
This week marks a massive trend of these precursors, starting tomorrow with the Gotham Independent Film Awards, where one can find my predictions from the previous column here, along with a couple of others. This Tuesday is the New York Film Critics Circle, this Wednesday is the Independent Spirit Award Nominations and the National Board of Review, followed by the AFI top ten on Thursday, The Critics’ Choice on Friday, and over the weekend, LAFCA on Sunday and the Golden Globes the following Monday. It’s a jam-packed week, and though there is always the chance some questions might be answered, there will be many others that are either still present or entirely new to be pondered on in the coming weeks. For this piece, let’s look at a couple of precursors.
Starting with the National Board of Review, a prestigious group that is just shy of 100 years old, it’s notorious for obscure, out-of-left-field choices, but its reputation precedes it.
The one thing to remember about NBR is Populism.
Their best film winners often skew more populist than other critics groups, with winners such as Jon M. Chu’s Wicked and Joseph Kosinski’s Top Gun: Maverick reflecting that. Furthermore, there is a large contingent of support behind Warner Bros, with several of the company’s films landing in the top ten or being chosen as the overall winner. It’s a crapshoot to guess what NBR ultimately goes with, but if I had to choose, I would go with Ryan Coogler’s Sinners as the Best Film, representing both their love of populist contenders and Warner Bros as a whole. Though I could very easily be wrong, and something else could go all the way.
NBR Predictions
Best Film: Sinners
The remaining ten
One Battle After Another
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
Weapons
Jay Kelly
House of Dynamite
Frankenstein
Wicked: For Good
Is This Thing On?
Bugonia
AFI Top Ten
Sasha will preview both this and the other critics’ awards coming up this week, but if I had to guess what the American Film Institute will go with, I would choose:
One Battle After Another
Hamnet
Sinners
Marty Supreme
Frankenstein
Avatar: Fire and Ash
KPop: Demon Hunters
Weapons
Wicked: For Good
Jay Kelly
If AFI were to present a Special Award for international films, I imagine either It Was Just An Accident, Sentimental Value, or No Other Choice would be chosen, but it is uncertain, as is everything else this early.
If there are any questions regarding either NBR or AFI, the history can be found here for
National Board of Review and here for AFI
Oscar Predictions for Week of December 1st
Not much has changed from last week (it’s the calm before the storm after all), but for what has
Jay Kelly in Best Casting over Sentimental Value
Sinners in Best Makeup and Hairstyling over 28 Years Later
Mickey 17 in Best Visual Effects over The Fantastic Four: First Steps
Best Picture
1. One Battle After Another
2. Hamnet
3. Sinners
4. Marty Supreme
5. Frankenstein
6. It Was Just An Accident
7. Sentimental Value
8. The Testament of Ann Lee
9. Avatar: Fire and Ash
10. Bugonia
Alts: Wicked: For Good, Jay Kelly, Weapons, Blue Moon, The Voice of Hind Rajab, No Other
Choice, Train Dreams
Best Director
1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
2. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
3. Ryan Coogler, Sinners
4. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just An Accident
Alts: Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value Guillermo Del Toro, Frankenstein
Best Actress
1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
3. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee
4. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another
5. Emma Stone, Bugonia
Alts: Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good, Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Kate Hudson,
Song Sung Blue
Best Actor
1. Timotheé Chalamet, Marty Supreme
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
3. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
4. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
5. George Clooney, Jay Kelly
Alts: Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams, Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me From
Nowhere, Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Best Supporting Actress
1. Amy Madigan, Weapons
2. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
3. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
4. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
5. Odessa A’zion, Marty Supreme
Alts: Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value, Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme
Best Supporting Actor
1. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
2. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
3. Paul Mescal, Hamnet
4. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly5. Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another
Alt: Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
Best Original Screenplay
1. Sinners
2. It Was Just An Accident
3. Sentimental Value
4. Marty Supreme
5. Blue Moon
Alts: Jay Kelly, Weapons
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. One Battle After Another
2. Hamnet
3. Frankenstein
4. No Other Choice
5. Bugonia
Alts: Wake Up Dead Man, Train Dreams
Casting
1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. Hamnet
4. Marty Supreme
5. Jay Kelly
Alts: Sentimental Value, Weapons, Wake Up Dead Man
Best International Feature
1. It Was Just An Accident
2. Sentimental Value
3. No Other Choice
4. The Secret Agent
5. The Voice of Hind Rajab
(Alts: Left-Handed Girl, Sirât, The President’s Cake)
Best Documentary Feature
1. The Perfect Neighbor
2. 2000 Meters to Andriivka
3. Mr. Nobody Against Putin
4. The Alabama Solution
5. Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk
(Alt: Seeds or Cutting Through Rocks)
Best Animated Feature
1. Kpop Demon Hunters
2. Zootopia 2
3. Arco
4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
5. Elio
(Alts: Scarlet and A Magnificent Life)
Best Cinematography
1. Hamnet
2. Sinners
3. One Battle After Another
4. Train Dreams
5. Marty Supreme
Best Editing
1. One Battle After Another
2. Marty Supreme
3. Sinners
4. Hamnet
5. F1
Best Production Design
1. Frankenstein
2. Wicked: For Good
3. Avatar: Fire and Ash
4. Hamnet
5. The Testament of Ann Lee
Best Costume Design
1. Frankenstein
2. Wicked: For Good
3. Sinners
4. Hamnet
5. The Testament of Ann Lee
Makeup and Hairstyling
1. Frankenstein
2. Wicked: For Good
3. The Smashing Machine
4. Weapons
5. Sinners
Best Visual Effects
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
2. Superman
3. F1
4. Predator: Badlands
5. Mickey 17
Best Sound
1. One Battle After Another
2. F1
3. Sinners
4. Avatar: Fire and Ash
5. Frankenstein
Best Visual Effects
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
2. Superman
3. F1
4. Predator: Badlands
5. Mickey 17
Best Sound
1. One Battle After Another
2. F1
3. Sinners
4. Avatar: Fire and Ash
5. Frankenstein
Best Score
1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. Marty Supreme
4. Hamnet
5. The Testament of Ann Lee
Best Song
1. Golden from KPop Demon Hunters
2. I Lied to You from Sinners
3. The Girl In The Bubble from Wicked: For Good
4. Dear Me from Diane Warren Relentless
5. Clothed By The Sun from: The Testament of Ann Lee
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By: Scott Kernen
Title: Nextgen Oscarwatcher: NBR and AFI Preview
Sourced From: www.awardsdaily.com/2025/12/01/nextgen-oscarwatcher-nbr-and-afi-preview/
Published Date: Mon, 01 Dec 2025 18:45:36 +0000
