Nextgen Oscarwatcher: It’s Paul Thomas Anderson’s World and We Just Live In It

Perhaps it was always going to happen, as it does every year, but the major guilds and the Golden Globes have both solidified certain aspects of the awards race and made other races (or other films in the awards season) harder to ultimately define.

Starting tomorrow, Oscar voters will finally have a chance to vote for what each person believes is not only the best film of the year (in addition to the animated and international categories), but the best in whatever branch one belongs to. It’s an exciting time to be an Oscar follower, so let’s dive in.

A Top Eight Solidified

If there was something the Screen Actors Guild, the Producers Guild, and the Directors Guild all solidified, it was not only what the top eight Best Picture nominees are, but what the top five Best Picture nominees would be.

Five films correlated in the SAG Ensemble and Directors Guild’s top five (a first since 2004), those films being:  

• One Battle After Another  
• Sinners  
• Hamnet  
• Marty Supreme  
• Frankenstein

The strength each of these films has shown since the start of the season (or whenever they premiered) has been truly remarkable, and with win potential for all five, it’s abundantly clear that there is a divide between this set of films and the projects below it.

Following that, the films Sentimental Value, Train Dreams, and Bugonia all landed nominations for Best Picture at the Critics’ Choice Awards, the Golden Globes, the Producers Guild, or some combination thereof.

If it were a sliding scale, one would have to wonder whether this would be the eighth for Best Picture, and with two additional slots, the question becomes: what gets the final two slots?

Weapons and F1 Receive PGA Nominations

Representing populist interests and success over the year, Zach Cregger’s Weapons and Joseph Kosinski’s F1 received nominations over James Cameron and Jon M. Chu’s sequels to their previous Best Picture-nominated franchises of Avatar and Wicked, showing that the quality of the box office (longevity, acclaim) was better than the quantity. The question then becomes: can one of them (or both) actually go the distance and receive a Best Picture nom, or is it too unlikely an outcome for Warner Bros.?

Neon’s The Secret Agent Shines, While It Was Just An Accident Falters

If there was a film that had the narrative to end all narratives and go all the way to a Best Picture nom, it was Jafar Panahi’s Palme d’Or winner. However, between losing Critics Choice, faltering at the BAFTA longlist, and blanking at the Golden Globes, one has to wonder if its chances of prevailing (or even being nominated) are dwindling by the minute. Is the importance of the film (and its anti-fascist message) more resonant in Filho’s The Secret Agent, or is there a way for both films to somehow still make it into the lineup?

Lead Acting Races Solidified While Supporting Races Remain Competitive

If there was one thing the Golden Globes proved to those who watched, it was that Jessie Buckley and Timothée Chalamet are going all the way in their respective categories to the Oscar stage. The undeniable quality of their performances and how each film is truthfully elevated by their commitment to the projects is a major reason both films are so successful, with both taking home Critics’ Choice and Golden Globe awards.

For the supporting races, though, it’s clear that Amy Madigan will face stiff competition from Teyana Taylor in One Battle After Another, who prevailed at the Golden Globes and is in the much stronger film. Supporting Actor remains a mystery, with Skarsgård taking the Globe but Elordi winning the CCA. The lack of Sentimental Value at SAG leaves that race a mystery, and whether or not one OBAA actor can prevail remains to be seen.

It’s Paul Thomas Anderson’s World, and We Are All Living In It

If there was one thing that the Golden Globes and the Critics Choice taught us, it’s that PTA is driving the season. The desire to see him win, to see him give speeches, to see him have a moment of glory, is just undeniable for those who have tuned in. Seeing him accept awards for his most ambitious work is what Oscar season, to many, is all about. Whether or not this translates at every precursor remains to be seen, but it’s a narrative that seems too big to fail, at least right now. With Zhao’s Hamnet and Coogler’s Sinners still at the heels of PTA’s film, this is still a season full of incredible films.

Oscar Predictions For This Week

A lot has changed, and some have solidified this week for Oscar predictions:  

• It Was Just An Accident out of Directing and Editing, clearly not the strong contender many (yours truly) thought it would be; in its place, Trier for Sentimental Value, and Frankenstein for editing.  
• Emma Stone in Best Actress for Bugonia over Amanda Seyfried for The Testament of Ann Lee—clear that Lanthimos’s film is having a moment.  
• Teyana Taylor is now the frontrunner in Supporting Actress over Amy Madigan, though this race remains close. In Supporting Actor, perhaps boldly due to the BAFTA shortlists, I have replaced Odessa A’Zion with Gwyneth Paltrow; perhaps it’s an overreaction, but it’s primarily due to the precedence of Judd Hirsch getting in over Paul Dano for The Fabelmans and the older Belfast duo getting in over the younger duo. The Acting branch loves veterans, after all. What do you all think?  
• The Secret Agent in Original Screenplay over Sorry, Baby.  
• Marty Supreme in Cinematography over Hamnet due to ASC.  
• Due to its overperformance at SAG (and it consistently winning Casting Awards), I have moved Sinners to #1 in Casting.  
• The Secret Agent moved up to #1 in International Feature over It Was Just An Accident.  
• No Other Choice out of International Feature, in with Left-Handed Girl.  
• With Avatar missing the Sound Guild, I have put in Sirât in its place.  
• Due to rumors from the makeup bakeoff, I have replaced One Battle After Another with Marty Supreme in Makeup.  
• A few select changes to the Short categories, but it’s always tough to read those.

Do these all seem too reactionary, or is this a natural response to an avalanche of precursors?

Without further ado, here they are:

Best Picture  

1. One Battle After Another  
2. Sinners  
3. Hamnet  
4. Marty Supreme  
5. Frankenstein  
6. Sentimental Value  
7. Bugonia  
8. Train Dreams  
9. The Secret Agent  
10. It Was Just An Accident
    Alts: F1, Weapons

Best Director  

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another  
2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners  
3. Guillermo Del Toro, Frankenstein  
4. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet  
5. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
   Alts: Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme; Jafar Panahi, It Was Just An Accident

Best Actress  

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet  
2. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You  
3. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value  
4. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another  
5. Emma Stone, Bugonia
   Alts: Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee; Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good; Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue

Best Actor  

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme  
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another  
3. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent  
4. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon  
5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
   Alts: Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams; Jesse Plemons, Bugonia

Best Supporting Actress  

1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another  
2. Amy Madigan, Weapons  
3. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value  
4. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners  
5. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme
   Alts: Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme; Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value; Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good

Best Supporting Actor  

1. Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another  
2. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value  
3. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein  
4. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another  
5. Paul Mescal, Hamnet
   Alt: Miles Caton, Sinners

Best Original Screenplay  

1. Sinners  
2. It Was Just An Accident  
3. Sentimental Value  
4. Marty Supreme  
5. The Secret Agent
   Alts: Weapons, Sorry, Baby, Jay Kelly

Best Adapted Screenplay  

1. One Battle After Another  
2. Hamnet  
3. Train Dreams  
4. Bugonia  
5. Frankenstein
   Alts: No Other Choice, Wake Up Dead Man

Casting  

1. Sinners  
2. One Battle After Another  
3. Hamnet  
4. Marty Supreme  
5. Weapons
   Alts: Sentimental Value, The Secret Agent

Best International Feature  

1. The Secret Agent  
2. Sentimental Value  
3. It Was Just An Accident  
4. Sirât  
5. Left-Handed Girl
   (Alts: The Voice of Hind Rajab, The President’s Cake)

Best Documentary Feature  

1. The Perfect Neighbor  
2. 2000 Meters to Andriivka  
3. Mr. Nobody Against Putin  
4. Come See Me In The Good Light  
5. Cover-Up
   (Alts: The Alabama Solution, Seeds or Cutting Through Rocks)

Best Animated Feature  

1. Kpop Demon Hunters  
2. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain  
3. Zootopia 2  
4. Arco  
5. Elio
   (Alts: Scarlet and A Magnificent Life)

Best Cinematography  

1. Sinners  
2. One Battle After Another  
3. Train Dreams  
4. Frankenstein  
5. Marty Supreme

Best Editing  

1. One Battle After Another  
2. Sinners  
3. Marty Supreme  
4. F1  
5. Frankenstein

Best Production Design  

1. Frankenstein  
2. Wicked: For Good  
3. Hamnet  
4. Sinners  
5. Marty Supreme

Best Costume Design  

1. Frankenstein  
2. Wicked: For Good  
3. Sinners  
4. Hamnet  
5. Hedda

Makeup and Hairstyling  

1. Frankenstein  
2. Wicked: For Good  
3. The Smashing Machine  
4. Sinners  
5. Marty Supreme

Best Sound  

1. Sinners  
2. F1  
3. One Battle After Another  
4. Frankenstein  
5. Sirât

Best Visual Effects  

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash  
2. Superman  
3. F1  
4. Frankenstein  
5. Sinners

Best Score  

1. Sinners  
2. One Battle After Another  
3. Marty Supreme  
4. Hamnet  
5. F1

Best Song  

1. Golden from KPop Demon Hunters  
2. I Lied to You from Sinners  
3. The Girl In The Bubble from Wicked: For Good  
4. Dear Me from Diane Warren Relentless  
5. Train Dreams from Train Dreams

Best Documentary Short  

1. All the Empty Rooms  
2. Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud
3. The Devil is Busy
4. All The Walls Came Down
5. Cashing Out

Best Animated Short  

1. Snow Bear  
2. Autokar  
3. Butterfly  
4. The Girl Who Cried Pearls  
5. Éiru

Best Live Action Short  

1. Ado  
2. Beyond Silence  
3. The Boy with White Skin  
4. Butcher’s Stain  
5. Amareia

Be on the lookout for our Final Oscar Predictions next week.  

It’s a wild time for awards fanatics, and it’ll only get crazier from here.

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By: Scott Kernen
Title: Nextgen Oscarwatcher: It’s Paul Thomas Anderson’s World and We Just Live In It
Sourced From: www.awardsdaily.com/2026/01/12/nextgen-oscarwatcher-its-paul-thomas-andersons-world-and-we-just-live-in-it/
Published Date: Mon, 12 Jan 2026 18:23:03 +0000