Nextgen Oscarwatcher: Best Director: Who has the narrative, and Warner Bros’s Banner Year

What a week it has been for the awards race, wouldn’t you say? Despite the Toronto Film Festival occurring and a number of films screening for the press, the true major development in the season has been the WAVES of reactions flooding in for Paul Thomas Anderson’s latest film, and largest swing yet, One Battle After Another. What started as my default frontrunner back in March has quietly turned into something that, perhaps recklessly for many Oscar voters, has become a project that is on the sidelines, waiting to be released, with a large uphill climb to make back its over $100 million budget. It seems fairly frustrating and obvious in hindsight, though. Why were so many people, including yours truly, so down on PTA and his Oscar prospects over the past few months? One could argue that there are a couple of factors that have led to this point. 

Warner Bros. Year-Defining Slate

Outside of the film Twitter hiveminds favorite distributors, A24 and Neon, if there was one studio that truly has been dedicated to the theatrical experience this entire year, it’s Warner Brothers, and it isn’t just the amount (or quantity) of projects that are releasing, it’s the sheer quality of what is being offered. The amount of difficulty that comes from being in charge of any distribution company is hard enough, but taking big risks, with projects based on little to no IP, or simple name recognition of actors, is an entirely new ballgame. Found in an informative Hollywood Reporter article here, it’s hard to fathom how challenging it has been to develop and produce such a diverse array (from superhero movies like Superman to horror franchises like The Conjuring) that has knocked it out of the park this year.

However, it really is the Original Ips that make a difference, and though Bong Joon-Ho’s Mikey 17 struggled, the success of Coogler’s Sinners and Cregger’s Weapons is what has not only defined the studio, but the year in film in some ways. The desire for original, quality content is there, and the true success of what these gifted filmmakers have offered is why these movies did so well, in addition to the genre aspect of each. 

However, the project that is keeping everyone up at night (from Warner Bros executives to film fanatics) has always been PTA’s grand old swing at “epic filmmaking.” A 2 hour and 45 minute exercise in political expression with a budget that carries up to $150 million is an enormous swing already, but factor in how this is the last major film on their plate for 2025, and has been one that has outright rejected film festival presence, it would be fairly normal to be concerned about how strong this film can go, and the consequences of not meeting those expectations. 

Regardless of how it all turns out, the amount of respect towards the company and Paul Thomas Anderson, for TAKING A RISK like this, needs to be present. Shot on VistaVision and intended for IMAX screens, this is a lot of cinephiles’ dreams come true, and if the film is successful, and this proves to be Paul Thomas Anderson’s year, it’ll be an incredible Oscar success story akin to Steven Spielberg, Martin Scorsese, and Christopher Nolan, among others.

However, the risks still remain. Can a highly expensive film from a respected (if not entirely populist) director actually break through in a post-COVID, politically divisive time period? That answer is uncertain, and though it seems like the stars are aligning for the 11-time Oscar nominee, one with much love and respect in this industry, nothing is a guarantee until it actually happens. 

Best Director and the “Narrative”

If there is one film that has truly been hit with a challenger in Best Picture with the presence of One Battle After Another, it just so happens to be in another Warner Bros film in the form of Ryan Coogler’s Sinners. Thought to be the “underdog” of the year, a socially relevant horror film that surpassed expectations financially and critically with a strong ensemble, it seemed fairly solid of chance that Sinners could go all the way in Best Picture. After the Venice and Telluride Film Festival, many, including yours truly, believed a suitable challenger never presented itself. Hamnet might be too downbeat. Sentimental Value might be too “slight.” The tastemakers (including yours truly) were on the firm Coogler train…. Until last week. 

It seems rather shocking and not at the same time. The only film that could possibly take down Sinners was one from the same studio and the same “risk taking” from an auteur filmmaker, this one being a director who the academy loves, and he returns the admiration. Ryan Coogler, though undeniably going to be a major focus of this Oscar season, has never actually bought into the “Awards Season Galore” famously rejecting an Academy Invite noted here. This is all just secondary to creating films that speak about how he feels about the industry and the world as a whole. If he wins (and there is still a chance this early), the history-making behind the win is secondary to the actual experience of filmmaking, and one has to respect his honesty and vision in that regard. 

Is this to suggest that PTA actually cares about awards and the “game” of Awards Season? Of course not, as part of the reason he has obtained so much admiration and reverence in this industry is earned through the risks he has taken as a director and writer, projects that focus on the human condition, and often themes that are too “uncomfortable” to address for some. Power and greed in There Will Be Blood, Lust and Obsession in Phantom Thread, and now, Political Division and Conflict in One Battle After Another. Directors who continue to take big swings and hint that “the best is yet to come” are some of the best that define a generation, as Paul Thomas Anderson has. 

The question then becomes, who wins Best Director if the race comes down to them? The fact of the matter is, perhaps in a weird way of thinking, though it makes sense, I really see the narrative coming down to who created the more impactful film that will speak more broadly to viewers and the academy. This whole season, it seemed like Coogler was in it to win the Oscar, but genre bias and a rejection of “populist” filmmaking from the directors’ branch has led some people to think he could be outright snubbed if the film is no longer winning, and unfortunately, it’s what my head is telling me. 

Nevertheless, I expect both to earn DGA noms, and if I had to guess what the lineup would be, I would say

DGA Five

• Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
• Ryan Coogler, Sinners
• Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
• Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
• Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme

My institution is expecting this turn of events to occur:

Paul Thomas Anderson creates his masterpiece, according to critics, has a box office success (his biggest) and sweeps the category, while Ryan Coogler hits the precursors and misses, leading to a consolation prize in original screenplay. 

My gut instinct is still thinking this is a possibility:
Paul Thomas Anderson’s latest outing turns out to be divisive and alienating to audience, while Ryan Coogler’s film proves to be the “Girl Next Door” and the narrative coalesces about his win making history, in addition to being the most “artistically daring” movie of the year, leading to a victory in the category while PTA takes adapted screenplay as consolation for potentially missing. 

The latter is harder to believe because we all know how the academy loves PTA, especially the directors’ branch, but one has to observe all possible scenarios.

If both get nominated, and Warner Bros truly pushes the two frontrunners until the very end, this would be quite a Best Picture race of one company. 

On a side note, with the awards campaign announcement for Cregger’s Weapons, one can expect Amy Madigan’s Oscar prospects to be very real, and a stealth win could happen under the right circumstances. 

Oscar Predictions for the week of September 14

A few notable changes have been made, with many due to the rise of One Battle After Another in key categories.

• One Battle After Another is now my intuitive frontrunner in Best Picture, though my gut still clings to Sinners.
• Paul Thomas Anderson is now my intuitive frontrunner in Best Picture, and I have taken Coogler out, though he remains my gut instinct in parentheses
• I have removed Rental Family from all its Oscar categories after its more muted response from TIFF, and specifically replaced Fraser with DiCaprio (once again, he is my intuitive #5 while Michael B. Jordan is my gut instinct). For the tenth slot in BP, I am toying with Bigelow’s House of Dynamite, Guillermo Del Toro’s Frankenstein or my stubborn self, Testament of Ann Lee. For now, I’ll go with Frankenstein as it was the runner-up to Hamnet for the People’s Choice
• Amy Madigan shoots up to #1 in Best Supporting Actress
• Marty Supreme back into Original Screenplay five, while Rental Family is dropped
• One Battle After Another is now the frontrunner in Sound, Score, and Adapted Screenplay, plus is present in a ton of categories not mentioned originally
• Frankenstein is now the frontrunner in production design over Wicked
• I took out one of the Wicked Songs and replaced it with Clothed By The Sun from The Testament of Ann Lee

Without further ado, here are the predictions

Best Picture

1. One Battle After Another (gut instinct points to Sinners)
2. Sinners
3. Hamnet
4. Sentimental Value
5. Marty Supreme
6. Wicked: For Good
7. It Was Just An Accident
8. Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
9. The Voice of Hind Rajab
10. Frankenstein (might be netflix’s push)

Alts: The Netflix Trio (House of Dynamite, Jay Kely, Wake Up Dead Man), No Other Choice, The Testament of Ann Lee, Bugonia, and Avatar: Fire and Ash)

Best Director

1.  Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (gut instinct points to Ryan Coogler, Sinners where he either gets in and wins, or gets snubbed, not sure there is an in between)
2. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
3. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
4. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just An Accident

Alt: Ryan Coogler, Sinners

Best Actress

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
2. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good
3. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee
4. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
5. Emma Stone, Bugonia

Alt: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Best Actor

1. Timotheé Chalamet, Marty Supreme
2. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
3. George Clooney, Jay Kelly
4. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
5.  Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (If Sinners is winning Best Picture, Michael B. Jordan will get nominated likely over him)

Alts: Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine, Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

Best Supporting Actress

1. Amy Madigan, Weapons
2. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme
5. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value

Alt: Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another, Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine

Best Supporting Actor

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
2.  Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
3. Paul Mescal, Hamnet
4. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
5. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

Alt: Delroy Lindo, Sinners

Best Original Screenplay

1. Sinners
2. Sentimental Value
3. It Was Just An Accident
4. A House of Dynamite
5. Marty Supreme

Alt: Jay Kelly

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. One Battle After Another
2. Hamnet
3. Bugonia
4. Wake Up Dead Man
5. No Other Choice

Alt: Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

Best Casting

1. Sinners
2. Marty Supreme
3. Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
4. One Battle After Another
5. Weapons

Alt: Wake Up Dead Man, Jay Kelly, Sentimental Value

Best International Feature

1. Sentimental Value
2. The Voice of Hind Rajab
3. No Other Choice
4. The Secret Agent
5. It Was Just An Accident (if it isn’t submitted, then Sirât)

Best Documentary Feature

1. The Perfect Neighbor
2. Cutting Through Rocks
3. Seeds
4. 2000 Meters to Andriivka
5. The Cycle of Love 

Best Animated Feature

1. Kpop Demon Hunters
2. Zootopia 2
3. Arco
4. A Magnificent Life
5. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain

Best Cinematography

1. Hamnet
2. Sinners
3. One Battle After Another
4. Marty Supreme
5. Frankenstein

Best Editing

1. Marty Supreme
2. One Battle After Another
3. Sinners
4. Sentimental Value
5. Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

Best Production Design

1. Frankenstein
2. Wicked: For Good
3. Avatar: Fire and Ash
4. Sinners
5. Hamnet

Best Costume Design

1. Wicked: For Good
2. Frankenstein
3. Sinners
4. Hamnet
5. The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Frankenstein
2. Wicked: For Good
3. The Smashing Machine
4. 28 Years Later
5. Wolf Man

Best Visual Effects

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
2. Wicked: For Good
3. Superman
4. Mission Impossible – The Final Reckoning
5. F1

Best Sound

1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
4. F1
5. Wicked: For Good

Best Score

1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. Frankenstein
4. Marty Supreme
5. Hamnet

Best Song

1. Cynthia Erivo Song from Wicked: For Good
2. Dear Me from Diane Warren Relentless
3. Golden from KPop Demon Hunters
4. I Lied to You from Sinners
5. Clothed By The Sun from The Testament of Ann Lee

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By: Scott Kernen
Title: Nextgen Oscarwatcher: Best Director: Who has the narrative, and Warner Bros’s Banner Year
Sourced From: www.awardsdaily.com/2025/09/15/nextgen-oscarwatcher-best-director-who-has-the-narrative-and-warner-bross-banner-year/
Published Date: Mon, 15 Sep 2025 10:31:34 +0000