May Predictions and Temperature Check on All Oscar Categories

Suffice to say, it’s been a pretty hectic week regarding the movie business, most of it good, while some of it is more debatable. Following the Scientific and Technical Awards (which one can find here if there is interest in the awards that were given out), the board of governors announced that several new rules, or regulations regarding what can be (and what will be) eligible for the 99^th Academy Awards, and seemingly beyond that.

Before reaching what the major updates are, some of the changes included preventing AI or non-human creations from even being eligible for said award (screenplay is specified), and having an Original Song contender play before the credits roll, showing the academy’s governors are often aware of what needs to be done to be as successful as possible.

However, the two biggest updates that caused a big uproar on Film Twitter were removing the rule limiting one’s acting nomination to one slot per category, and, most significantly, altering the International Film category (and the eligibility of what can contend, etc.). Starting with the former, it’s worth pondering over, would Nicole Kidman have gotten in for both Luhrmann’s Moulin Rouge and Amenábar’s The Others if this rule hadn’t been in place, or would Margot Robbie have gotten in for Tarantino’s OUATIH in addition to Roach’s Bombshell? It’s hard to come up with a solid conclusion, but chances are these scenarios may have played out.

However, the most controversial decision was that of the International Feature award. The most scandalous and problematic category in the telecast’s history (not the fault of the films, rather the rules of eligibility, etc) the board of governors has now effectively changed the rule of country submissions, letting films that have won top awards at major film fests (Sundance, Berlin, Cannes, Venice, and Toronto) compete even if the country snubs said film. There is a lot to take away from this. The main motivation behind this change very much has to do with the 2023 International Feature race, where Triet’s Anatomy of a Fall won the Palme, and was snubbed in favor of another French film in the form of Húng’s The Taste of Things likely due to politics, the former going on to earn nominations for Picture, Director, Actress, Writing, and Editing, while being absent in the International Feature which was awarded to Glazer’s The Zone of Interest. Suffice to say, this is egregious even by the most lenient of individuals and should not have happened due to the simple rules of country submissions. However, this opens a new can of worms with the idea of film festival juries coalescing behind a film with the intent of getting it into the Oscar race, knowing its country (perhaps an intolerant one at that) would never submit it. This will surely be a battle, one that will be fought over the coming years. Another clarification issue was regarding who wins the award. It is no longer the country of origin, but rather simply the film itself. Though the director’s name is engraved onto the statuette, it is still technically not their award, and thus will still not be considered Oscar-winning filmmakers. The desire for change rages on. One can find other rules regarding the Oscars for the upcoming year here.

Oscar Predictions for May

I thought about simply doing screenplay analysis this weekend, but with the announcement of Gerwig’s Narnia film being punted to next year, it seemed best to just predict every category and go from there, as the Cannes Film Festival is on the horizon. Excluding the shorts and Original Song, here are the predictions for the month of May

Best Picture

1. Wild Horse Nine
2. The Odyssey
3. Digger
4. Project Hail Mary
5. Cry to Heaven
6. Fjord
7. Fatherland
8. Dune: Part Three
9. A Place in Hell
10. Werwulf

(alts: Untitled Jesse Eisenberg film, The Social Reckoning)

Best Director

1. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine
2. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey
3. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven
4. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord
5. Paweł Pawlikowski, Fatherland

(alts: Alejandro G. Iñárritu for Digger, Christopher Miller and Phil Lord for Project Hail Mary)

Best Actor

1. Tom Cruise, Digger
2. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine
3. Matt Damon, The Odyssey
4. Sebastian Stan, Fjord
5. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary

(alt: Javier Bardem, The Beloved)

Best Actress

1. Michelle Williams, A Place In Hell
2. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland
3. Renate Reinsve, Fjord
4. Juliette Binoche, Queen At Sea
5. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie

(alt: Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning)

Best Supporting Actor

1. John Goodman, Digger
2. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven
3. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine
4. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine
5. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning

(alt: Paul Giamatti, Untitled Jesse Eisenberg Film)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine
2. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey
3. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell
4. Noma Dumezweni, Prima Facie
5. Sandra Hüller, Digger

(alt: Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades)

Best Original Screenplay

1. Wild Horse Nine
2. Digger
3. Fjord
4. Queen at Sea
5. A Place in Hell

(alt: Untitled Jesse Eisenberg film)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Project Hail Mary
2. Cry to Heaven
3. The Odyssey
4. All of a Sudden
5. Fatherland (Could be Original, will be a debate until it premieres)

(alt: Dune Part Three)

Best Casting

1. Wild Horse Nine
2. Digger
3. The Odyssey
4. Cry to Heaven
5. The Social Reckoning

(alt: Fjord)

Best International Feature

1. Fatherland
2. All of a Sudden
3. Minotaur
4. Coward
5. Mimesis

Best Animated Feature

1. Wildwood
2. Hoppers
3. Forgotten Island
4. Toy Story 5
5. Julián

Best Documentary Feature

1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem
2. American Doctor
3. Nuisance Bear
4. When a Witness Recants
5. One in a Million

Best Cinematography

1. The Odyssey
2. Digger
3. Fatherland
4. Jack of Spades
5. Dune: Part Three

Best Editing

1. Wild Horse Nine
2. The Odyssey
3. Digger
4. Project Hail Mary
5. Fjord

Best Production Design

1. The Odyssey
2. Werwulf
3. Cry to Heaven
4. Project Hail Mary
5. Dune: Part Three

Best Costume Design

1. Cry to Heaven
2. The Odyssey
3. Werwulf
4. Dune: Part Three
5. Wild Horse Nine

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Werwulf
2. Digger
3. The Odyssey
4. Clayface
5. Resident Evil

Best Visual Effects

1. Dune: Part Three
2. Project Hail Mary
3. The Odyssey
4. The End of Oak Street
5. Avengers: Doomsday

Best Sound

1. Dune: Part Three
2. Project Hail Mary
3. The Odyssey
4. Digger
5. The Uprising

Best Score

1. The Odyssey
2. Project Hail Mary
3. Wild Horse Nine
4. Disclosure Day
5. Digger

It’s really throwing darts at the wall and seeing what sticks this early out, and as the season progresses, I will include alternates, etc, but this is where it all stands currently for me. The Cannes Film Festival starts in a little over a mere week from now, and there will be much to discuss while it is occurring.

As always,

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By: Scott Kernen
Title: May Predictions and Temperature Check on All Oscar Categories
Sourced From: www.awardsdaily.com/2026/05/04/may-predictions-and-temperature-check-on-all-oscar-categories/
Published Date: Mon, 04 May 2026 14:30:19 +0000